[AK Poll] People Power Party Maintains Lead, Oh Se-hoon Ahead by 19.2%p, Park Hyung-joon by 27.5%p

About 90% of Respondents Say "Will Not Change Supported Candidate"

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] In the final opinion poll conducted just before the ban on publishing opinion polls for the April 7 by-elections, the People Power Party's candidates for Seoul and Busan mayor were found to be ahead of the Democratic Party candidates by 19 percentage points and 27 percentage points, respectively. Additionally, about 90% of respondents said they would vote for the candidate they currently support.

According to a poll commissioned by Asia Economy to Win-G Korea Consulting, conducted from March 30 to 31 among 1,020 Seoul voters, candidate Oh received 55.0%, which is 19.2 percentage points higher than Democratic Party candidate Park Young-sun's 35.8%. The intention to maintain current support until election day was 89.2%, while only 8.6% said they might change their choice.

During the same period, a poll of 1,012 Busan voters showed candidate Park receiving 59.8%, leading Democratic Party candidate Kim Young-chun by 27.4 percentage points at 32.4%. Compared to previous polls (Seoul - March 6-7, Busan - February 20-21), the gap in both regions widened by around 10 percentage points. In Busan, a poll conducted on December 12-13, 2020, showed Park at 45.8% and Kim at 30.3%.

The increased disappointment with the administration is attributed to the exposure of the LH scandal by organizations including People's Solidarity for Participatory Democracy on March 2. In Seoul, President Moon Jae-in's approval rating was 43.1%, while disapproval reached 55.4%. Regarding the nature of the Seoul mayoral by-election, 56.0% viewed it as a "judgment on the administration," overwhelmingly surpassing the 36.1% who saw it as "stable governance" by about 20 percentage points.

When asked about the "likelihood of winning," which can gauge the trend, candidate Oh led with 62.1%, while candidate Park had 33.0%, widening the gap compared to support rates. In Busan, 70.5% believed candidate Park Hyung-joon had a high chance of winning, while candidate Kim received 23.2%. Voter turnout intention was high at 97.4% in Seoul and 96.5% in Busan.

Meanwhile, in response to the question about the most suitable candidate for the next president, in Seoul, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl led with 36.3%, followed by Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung (21.6%), Democratic Party's Standing Election Committee Chair Lee Nak-yeon (12.9%), People's Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (5.4%), independent lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo (4.0%), and former Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae (3.0%). In Busan, Yoon received a high response of 42.2%, followed by Lee Jae-myung (18.0%), Lee Nak-yeon (9.9%), Hong Joon-pyo (4.2%), Oh Se-hoon (4.2%), and Ahn Cheol-soo (3.7%).

Under the Public Official Election Act, the publication of opinion poll results is prohibited from April 1 to 8 p.m. on April 7; however, it is permissible to publish or report on polls conducted up to March 31 during this period.

The response rates for this survey were 6.8% in Seoul and 12.5% in Busan. The survey method was 100% mobile phone virtual numbers via wireless ARS. The sample was extracted using weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

Meanwhile, as of 11 a.m. on the first day of early voting, the turnout rate was 2.74%. Voters can cast their ballots at early voting stations set up in by-election areas regardless of their registered address.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.