North Korean Missiles... Possibility of 'North Korean Iskander and ATACMS'

North Korea's Korean Central TV released photos on the 11th showing the launch of two short-range projectiles conducted the previous day in the Hamhung area of South Hamgyong Province. The military initially estimated these projectiles to be Iskander-class KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles, but the photos released by North Korea suggest they are a new type of ballistic missile different from the KN-23. The photos show the launch scenes released by Central TV that afternoon. (Photo by Yonhap News)

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As North Korea has launched ballistic missiles following cruise missiles, attention is focusing on the possibility of additional provocations. The cruise missiles launched by North Korea last weekend do not violate the United Nations Security Council resolutions. However, ballistic missiles violate the resolutions regardless of distance. North Korea has thus played a card that can strongly appeal to the United States and the international community.

North Korea is developing a new weapons trio consisting of a new tactical guided missile (tactical guided weapon, North Korean version of Iskander), a super-large multiple rocket launcher, and the North Korean version of ATACMS. The military assesses that North Korea’s test launches of the upgraded new tactical guided missile and the North Korean version of ATACMS have been insufficient, making additional launches highly likely.

According to Japan’s NHK on the day, the ballistic missile launch times were 7:06 a.m. and 7:30 a.m. It cannot be ruled out that the upgraded new tactical guided missile, capable of carrying two ballistic missiles, and the North Korean version of ATACMS were launched consecutively from their launch platforms. In 2019, North Korea revealed a tracked mobile launcher vehicle (TEL) equipped with two launch tubes when it launched the upgraded new tactical guided missile.

North Korea has continued test launches to reduce the firing interval of new weapons. For example, the firing interval of the super-large multiple rocket launcher launched in September 2019 was 19 minutes. This was shortened to 3 minutes in October and 30 seconds in November. According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the firing interval of the super-large multiple rocket launcher was 20 seconds as of March last year. It is analyzed that North Korea has already reduced the firing interval, completed weaponization capable of surprise attacks, and is conducting proficiency training.

The military evaluates that North Korea is highly likely to carry out additional provocations in the future. At the report on the summary of the 8th Party Congress business in January, Chairman Kim Jong-un stated, "The task of possessing nuclear submarines and underwater-launched nuclear strategic weapons, which have important significance in enhancing nuclear long-range strike capabilities, has been set." He also unveiled the Pukguksong-5, an upgraded version of the existing submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), so additional SLBM launches cannot be ruled out.

If North Korea continues its high-intensity actions, it is expected to affect the upcoming trilateral security chiefs meeting of South Korea, the United States, and Japan scheduled for the end of next week. The United States said over the past weekend that the short-range missile launches were not violations of the UN Security Council resolutions and that the door for dialogue with North Korea remains open. However, the situation is expected to change with North Korea’s ballistic missile launches.

Some analysts evaluate that North Korea is using these actions as a pressure tactic before the Biden administration reviews its new North Korea strategy.

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense Forum (KODEF), said, “Because two missiles were launched at intervals of about 20 minutes, there is a possibility that the upgraded North Korean version of Iskander, first revealed at the 8th Party Congress military parade, or the North Korean version of ATACMS, which has undergone four test launches, were involved,” adding, “Depending on North Korea-US relations, mid- to long-range ballistic missile test launches are also expected to continue.”

Meanwhile, Defense Ministry spokesperson Boo Seung-chan said at a regular briefing that “there are parts that require analysis as close to the facts as possible” when asked about the Defense Ministry’s assessment of North Korea’s projectile launches.

When asked whether the judgment on ballistic missiles was being withheld, he replied, “Since we are analyzing the source, it is not appropriate at this time to say ‘it is a ballistic missile’ or to specify the source or type.”

When asked about the Defense Ministry’s position on the launches that day, he responded, “I understand that the NSC is currently being held, and we need to wait and see the results.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.