Israel General Election Voting Begins, "No Majority Party Expected... Another Election Possible if Things Go Wrong"

Right-Wing Coalition Broken... Netanyahu's Approval Rating Is Key
Vaccine Distribution vs Corruption Allegations... Public Opinion Divided
If Coalition Fails to Secure Majority, New Election Must Be Held

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Voting has begun in Israel's general election, held again after one year since March last year. Polls predict that no party will secure a majority of seats in this election either, raising concerns that another election might be held immediately after this one. Israel, which has held as many as four general elections in the past two years, has been experiencing political confusion since the coalition between the Likud Party led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Blue and White Party broke down after the last election. In particular, public opinion is sharply divided over Netanyahu, who is both credited for the successful vaccine rollout and accused of corruption, making it likely that the outcome of Netanyahu's potential return to power will only be known after all votes are fully counted.

According to local media such as The Times of Israel on the 23rd (local time), voting in Israel's general election began at 7 a.m. (2 p.m. Korean time). Voting will continue until 10 p.m. that day, and while the on-site vote count is expected to outline results late that day, a large number of absentee ballots this year means a definitive election result is expected around the 25th. The last poll released before the election projected that the Likud Party, led by Netanyahu, would secure 32 seats, and right-wing parties would collectively hold a majority with 60 seats, but many variables remain, making a clear prediction difficult.

Especially, the sharply divided public opinion regarding Netanyahu makes forecasting the results challenging. According to The Times of Israel, Netanyahu's approval ratings have somewhat increased due to Israel's ranking first worldwide in COVID-19 vaccine distribution, but opposition remains strong because he is currently on trial for corruption and fraud charges. The Times of Israel also reported that fatigue toward Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for over 15 years?the longest-serving prime minister?has become a negative factor for the ruling Likud Party.

The upcoming Passover holiday (March 27 to April 4), Israel's largest festival, which begins immediately after the election amid the COVID-19 situation, is also cited as a variable. Due to COVID-19 concerns, fewer people are expected to visit polling stations in person, and with over 600,000 voters?twice as many as in the previous election?casting absentee ballots during the Passover holiday, it has become difficult to gauge public sentiment from exit polls. Approximately 6.578 million voters registered for this election, with 13,685 polling stations set up in accordance with COVID-19 measures. Additionally, to prevent mass infections, no more than 500 people can vote simultaneously at one location, which is expected to be another variable.

Some express concerns that if the Likud Party fails to form a coalition again and no party secures the majority of 61 seats, another election may be necessary. Israel elects 120 members of parliament through general elections, where voters cast ballots for party lists, and seats are allocated proportionally based on each party's vote share. Afterward, the president nominates the leader of the party most likely to form a coalition government as the prime minister candidate. If the candidate successfully forms a coalition with other parties, they become prime minister.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.