[D-16, The Power of the Market] Presidential Run or Going Home... Or Maybe Neither

4·7 By-Election In-Depth Analysis

Seoul and Busan Annual Budgets Total 54 Trillion Won
Over 20 Affiliated Agencies with Strong Authority
Running Alone Puts Candidates Among Presidential Contenders
Many Cases of Political Marginalization After Losing

[Asia Economy Reporters Lim Cheol-young and Oh Ju-yeon] The Seoul and Busan mayoral by-elections are just 16 days away amid unprecedented "national interest." Both ruling and opposition parties are approaching the elections with a do-or-die attitude. As the heads of South Korea's first and second largest cities, the mayors of Seoul and Busan wield enormous authority and influence. Their political symbolism is also significant. In particular, winning the Seoul mayoral race is considered a fast track to becoming a presidential candidate in the future.

◆ The ‘Power of the Mayor’ Managing 50 Trillion Won = 54.7 trillion won. This is the combined budget size of Seoul and Busan. The winners of the Seoul and Busan by-elections on April 7 will hold this formidable budget execution authority and oversee not only the city hall but also investment and affiliated institutions. The mayor’s power comes from budget execution, and priorities determine the direction. Looking at the pledges of candidates from both parties running in this election, one can discern the direction of budget execution; all candidates commonly emphasize COVID-19 support. The scale is also in the trillions of won.

Mayors not only execute budgets based on the Local Autonomy Act, enforcement decrees, and ordinances but also exert influence over various regulations, enactments, relaxations, and permits. Especially, the Seoul mayor attends Cabinet meetings and sets the standard for policies of other local governments. As of the end of last year, the number of public officials in Seoul and its affiliated organizations, including political appointees, reached 45,316. The heads of 26 affiliated organizations such as public corporations and investment institutions are appointed in ways that are directly or indirectly influenced by the mayor’s disposition. Busan also has 20,347 public officials working in 22 affiliated public institutions, all of whom are subject to the mayor’s direct or indirect personnel authority. The large-scale recruitment of experts from civic groups during the late former Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon’s tenure was also thanks to the mayor’s personnel authority.

The regulatory and permit authority held by local governments also changes direction entirely depending on the mayor’s will. Whether to strengthen redevelopment and reconstruction regulations to stabilize housing prices and supply housing through district unit plans, or to ease redevelopment and reconstruction regulations based on large-scale supply plans, regulatory and permit policies take on polar opposite forms. In some cases, even if it means clashing with the central government, the mayor pushes forward the regulatory and permit policies they envision. In Seoul’s case, pledges such as Park Young-sun of the Democratic Party’s “half-price apartments” and Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party’s “easing of floor restrictions along the Han River” illustrate that the direction of regulation and permits can completely change depending on who becomes mayor.

◆ The ‘Seoul Mayoral Election’ at the Gateway to the Presidential Election... A Dead End if Defeated = This election carries added weight as it takes place at the gateway to the presidential election scheduled for next March. Historically, Seoul mayors have always dreamed of the presidency, leveraging their immense influence and authority. Former President Lee Myung-bak, the 32nd mayor of Seoul, was elected president by promoting projects such as the restoration of Cheonggyecheon Stream and easing redevelopment regulations. Park Won-soon, who served the longest term as Seoul mayor (8 years and 8 months) from the 35th to 37th terms, also never gave up on the presidential race.

The key weapon candidates wield at this presidential gateway is ‘real estate.’ Although there are criticisms that some pledges are unlikely to be realized within the term, opposition candidates have criticized the Moon Jae-in administration’s real estate policies and put forward revitalizing reconstruction and redevelopment as major pledges. Real estate pledges are crucial to winning the mayoral seat, and successful implementation of these pledges is seen as a ‘direct ticket’ to the presidency.

Paradoxically, the greater the weight, the greater the risk. Many past mayors and candidates have retired from politics rather than becoming president. This includes former Seoul mayors Jo Soon, Go Gun, former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, former Minister of Justice Kang Geum-sil, and former Grand National Party leader Chung Mong-joon. Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University’s Graduate School of Policy said, "Seoul mayoral elections tend to favor the ruling party if held early in the administration and the opposition if held late, but it is important to note that this election is taking place after the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) scandal."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.