Merkel's CDU Government Re-election Faces Red Light

Defeat in Local Elections on the 14th... Successor Leader Laschet's Position Also Unstable

Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany [Photo by AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] The ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Germany, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel (pictured), is expected to suffer a crushing defeat in two state elections held on the 14th (local time). It has become uncertain whether the CDU can recreate its government in the federal Bundestag election scheduled for September 26, and there are analyses that the position of Armin Laschet, who was elected CDU leader last January, has become unstable.

According to the Associated Press, in the state parliament elections held in Baden-W?rttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate on the same day, the CDU is expected to receive 23% and 27% of the vote, respectively. The vote shares recorded by the CDU in these two states are the lowest since World War II, leading to forecasts of the worst defeat. In Baden-W?rttemberg, the Green Party is expected to win, and in Rhineland-Palatinate, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is expected to win, with the CDU's vote share expected to be 7 to 9 percentage points lower than these parties.

This year, the CDU's popularity declined as vaccine rollouts were delayed compared to Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom, and a bribery scandal involving affiliated lawmakers that broke out just before the election dealt a decisive blow. CDU lawmaker Nikolas L?bel and Georg N?ßlein, a member of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the CDU's sister party, are accused of receiving bribes during the mask supply process.

Currently, the CDU/CSU alliance is in a coalition government with the SPD. However, Horst Seehofer, the Minister of the Interior and a strong candidate for the next SPD chancellor, said on the day of the election, "This election showed that a coalition excluding the CDU is possible." This appears to be with the Green Party, currently second in national support, in mind.

Trends in Support Rates by German Political Parties [Image Source= Bloomberg News]

In a February 4 poll, the CDU/CSU alliance led with 34% support, followed by the Green Party at 21% and the SPD at 15%. In May last year, the CDU/CSU alliance comfortably led with 39% support, ahead of the Green Party (18%) and SPD (16%), but has recently been under pressure.

Another source of concern is the low popularity of CDU leader Armin Laschet. Among conservatives, Markus S?der, leader of the CSU, is more popular than Laschet. Following the crushing defeat in the state elections, which was his first test as leader, evaluations suggest his position has become even more unstable.

In Germany, the state parliament election in Saxony-Anhalt is scheduled for June 6. Subsequently, on September 26, the federal Bundestag election and local elections in Berlin, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Thuringia will be held simultaneously.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.