Natural Population Decline Begins... Statistics Korea Warns "Decrease May Accelerate"

Announcement of 'December 2020 Population Trends' on the 24th

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] The phenomenon of the "population cliff," where the proportion of the working-age population aged 15 to 64 sharply declines, has begun. There are even forecasts that the population decline could become steeper in the future.

According to the "December 2020 Population Trends" released by Statistics Korea on the 24th, the natural population increase, calculated by subtracting the number of deaths from the number of births, was -32,718 as of last year.

This is the first time since the statistics began in 1970 that the natural population increase has recorded a negative (-) figure. It first fell below 10,000 in 2019 and then plunged into negative territory. The natural increase rate steadily declined from 3.2% in 2015, 2.5% in 2016, 1.4% in 2017, 0.5% in 2018, 0.1% in 2019, to -0.6% last year.

The sharp drop in natural increase is due to the significant annual decrease in the number of births. Over the past five years, the number of births was 438,420 in 2015, 406,243 in 2016, 357,771 in 2017, 326,822 in 2018, 302,676 in 2019, and 272,410 last year. This is the first time the annual number of births has fallen into the 200,000 range.

During the same period, the number of deaths remained at a similar level: 275,895 in 2015, 280,827 in 2016, 285,534 in 2017, 298,820 in 2018, 295,132 in 2019, and 305,127 last year.

The total fertility rate, which is the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her childbearing years (ages 15 to 49), also dropped to a record low of 0.84, the lowest since statistics began. The total fertility rate fell below 2.0 in 1984 at 1.74 and remained in the 1.0 range until 2017 at 1.05. From 2018, it dropped to 0.98, then to 0.92 in 2019, and 0.84 last year.

The number of marriages has also decreased for ten consecutive years since 2011. Last year, the number of marriages was 213,513, a 10.7% decrease from the previous year.

Kim Sooyoung, head of the Population Trends Division at Statistics Korea, explained at a briefing that "the population decline occurred for the first time due to a continuous low birthrate reducing the number of births and an aging population increasing the number of deaths."

Kim added, "For the time being, especially last year, the number of births may decrease further due to reduced marriages caused by COVID-19, and the number of deaths is expected to continue rising due to population aging. The natural population decline could become even steeper."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.