Reducing Global Temperature Rise by Just 0.5 Degrees Significantly Decreases Wildfire Damage

Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology Professor Yoon Jin-ho's Research Team Publishes Paper in International Journal on the 15th

[Figure 1] Comparison of changes in Fire Weather Index (FWI) by season with the greatest change in fire climate (refer to seasonal domain). Overall, FWI increases with a 1.5°C (a) and 2.0°C (b) rise, with the largest changes observed near the Amazon, southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and Australia. These changes occur in winter for East Asia and in autumn for North America, suggesting that the fire season may start earlier or later due to global warming, considering their main fire seasons are in summer. However, limiting the temperature rise to 0.5°C (c) significantly suppresses the increase in FWI in the major fire climate increase regions mentioned above. Image provided by Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology.

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] Amid frequent large-scale wildfire damages caused by global warming, a study has found that reducing the future temperature rise by just 0.5 degrees can significantly decrease wildfire damage.

On the 24th, according to Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), a research team led by Professor Yoon Jin-ho of the Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering simulated the relationship between climate change caused by global warming and changes in wildfire risk, revealing these results. The team confirmed that the global meteorological wildfire risk increased due to temperature rise caused by global warming, and especially that if the future temperature rise is limited from 2.0 degrees to around 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels, wildfire risk factors can be significantly reduced.

In recent years, large-scale wildfires have frequently occurred worldwide, including in Australia, California in the United States, and Siberia, prompting extensive research on the relationship between climate change and increased wildfire damage. These studies have warned of the possibility that temperature rises caused by greenhouse gas emissions could lead to a climate more vulnerable to wildfires. In response, the international community agreed through the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change in France to keep future temperature rise within 2 degrees. However, a qualitative evaluation of wildfire climate change, especially extreme weather conditions that trigger large wildfires, related to specific temperature rise levels had not been conducted.

The research team confirmed through simulations that climate change toward higher temperatures and lower humidity conditions is most pronounced in the Amazon, southern Africa, and countries near the Mediterranean, and that this will be stronger around the periods when wildfires are concentrated. In other words, due to climate warming, the period of weather and climate conditions vulnerable to wildfires in these regions may be extended compared to the present.

In particular, when comparing scenarios of 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees increases, although the temperature difference is only 0.5 degrees, nearly double the increase in meteorological wildfire risk is expected in some regions such as those near the Mediterranean and the western part of North America, where large wildfires frequently occur.

Professor Yoon Jin-ho said, "The increase in wildfire risk due to warming is clear, but if global efforts can limit temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees, the risk of large wildfires can be reduced," adding, "In some regions including Australia and Indonesia, vulnerability to wildfires has already significantly worsened due to climate change."

This research was conducted as a joint project with the University of Tokyo in Japan, Utah State University and Chapman University in the United States, Chonnam National University, and the National Institute of Forest Science under the Korea Forest Service. It was published online on the 15th in the international atmospheric science journal Environmental Research Letters.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.