Success in quarantine → Increased voter turnout... Will the ruling party's by-election victory formula work?

On the 22nd, officials are cleaning with water at the COVID-19 Central Vaccination Center set up at the National Medical Center in Jung-gu, Seoul. COVID-19 vaccinations are scheduled to begin on the 26th. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] Whether the 4th wave of COVID-19 will occur is expected to be a major variable determining the outcome of the April 7 by-elections. Unlike general election days, this day is not a public holiday, so voter turnout is inevitably expected to be relatively low. If, as experts fear, the 4th wave of COVID-19 materializes in March to April, voter turnout is expected to drop even further. Ultimately, many analyses suggest that the trend of COVID-19 and the quarantine situation will be the key factors.

On the 22nd, a ruling party official said, "We believe that the mayoral elections in Seoul as well as Busan are winnable, but the biggest variable seems to be voter turnout," adding, "Since it is not a holiday, we are worried." Generally, low voter turnout is interpreted as unfavorable to progressive parties.

One of the reasons for the Democratic Party of Korea's landslide victory in last April's general election was the high voter turnout. The turnout jumped from 58% in 2016 to 66.2%. It was also much higher compared to the 60.2% turnout in the 2018 local elections.

In November last year, the National Election Commission revealed in a general election analysis report based on sample surveys that voter turnout among people in their 40s and 50s increased by 9.2 and 10.4 percentage points respectively compared to four years ago. Many evaluations suggested that the voting enthusiasm of the 40-50 age group worked in favor of the ruling party.

By-elections generally have lower voter turnout. In particular, the local government head elections held in 2004, just two months after the Uri Party's landslide victory in the general election, recorded only 28.5% turnout. The result was a crushing defeat for the Uri Party.

On the other hand, the by-elections for Gangwon Province Governor and Seoul Mayor held in 2011 showed relatively high voter turnout rates of 39.6% and 45.9% respectively, both resulting in victories for the Democratic Party.

Currently, the COVID-19 situation is the most important factor for judgment. Monthly statistics show that confirmed cases were in the 3,100 range in February last year, rose to about 6,600 in March, but dropped to the 900 range in April when the general election was held. On April 14, the day before the election, there were 27 confirmed cases.

The first round of nationwide disaster relief funds was also distributed just before the general election. There was considerable analysis that public sentiment, which had frozen due to the so-called "mask crisis," changed due to the success of K-quarantine and the disaster relief funds. In the 21st general election white paper, the People Power Party cited the "government and ruling party's disaster relief fund distribution" as one of the reasons for their defeat. The current strong opposition by the People Power Party to the 4th disaster relief fund, calling it an election bribe, seems to be influenced by the trauma of last year's defeat mechanism.

Since the end of last year, confirmed cases have surged again due to the COVID-19 resurgence, so the ruling party cannot help but feel anxious. The Democratic Party argues that the disaster relief funds are unrelated to the election, emphasizing the logic, "If emergency patients occur, should we wait until after the election to treat them?"

The accumulated suffering from COVID-19 and the fact that it is the latter half of the administration are fundamentally unfavorable conditions for the ruling party. In fact, recent polls show that public sentiment in Seoul and Busan leans more toward "judging the administration" than "government stability."

Research View CEO An Il-won said, "The sentiment to judge the administration seems strong, but the main opposition party does not seem to be able to harness that sentiment," adding, "Since it has the character of a prelude to the presidential election, voter turnout could reach levels similar to 2011, but it will inevitably vary depending on the COVID-19 situation."

The National Election Commission is also paying close attention to voter turnout. A commission official said, "We are continuously strengthening publicity and promotion of voting participation," adding, "We consider thorough disinfection at polling stations important, and, as in last year's general election, we will consult with health authorities on measures such as allowing those in self-quarantine to vote at separate times."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.