Only 10% of the Global Population Vaccinated This Year... Economic Impact to Continue Next Year

Only 10 Countries with Over One-Third of Population Vaccinated... IMF Says "Variant Virus Is an Economic Factor"

[Image source= Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporters Byunghee Park and Hyunui Cho] "The global COVID-19 vaccination rate will reach only 10% by the end of this year and 21% by the end of next year. Only 10 countries will vaccinate more than one-third of their populations this year."

Swiss investment bank UBS recently issued this gloomy forecast, citing delays in COVID-19 vaccine distribution. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 31st of last month (local time) that the global economy, which was expected to rebound this year, is facing a crisis again, referencing UBS's bleak outlook.

Initially, expectations grew that many countries would return to normal life in 2021 due to faster-than-expected vaccine development. However, vaccine manufacturers such as Pfizer and AstraZeneca recently announced supply delays, citing production facility issues. The European Union (EU) aimed for a 70% vaccination rate by this summer, but the current rate is only 2%.

The EU especially had extreme conflicts with AstraZeneca, headquartered in London, UK. AstraZeneca, which initially promised to supply 80 million doses in the first quarter of this year, declared it would only supply 31 million doses. Some EU countries threatened legal action, and the European Commission warned it would block vaccines produced at AstraZeneca's Belgian factory from being shipped to the UK. Facing international criticism, the EU backed down on the 31st of last month, agreeing to receive 40 million doses in the first quarter.

The WSJ reported that with most countries still suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic, delays in vaccine supply will cause the economic impact of COVID-19 to continue beyond 2022.

Vaccine supply delays are occurring worldwide. China recently began vaccinations using Sinovac products. Consulting firm Trivium China pointed out, "Vaccine approval and production are much slower than expected." Chinese authorities stated that 1.68 billion vaccine doses are needed to vaccinate the entire Chinese population this year. However, Trivium expects the maximum supply this year to be only 850 million doses. Chinese authorities have not provided an estimated timeline for achieving herd immunity. Guo Wei, Vice Chairman of the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP), predicted that reaching herd immunity this year will be difficult. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK economic analysis organization, expects China will not achieve herd immunity until the end of next year.

The situation in South America is also severe. Brazil and Mexico currently have vaccination rates of only 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively. Argentina planned to receive 5 million doses of Russia's Sputnik vaccine in January but only received 800,000 doses due to production delays.

The varying vaccination speeds by country are also a negative factor for the global economy. Even countries with high vaccination rates worry about other countries' situations and may continue to close borders, forcing reliance solely on domestic demand. Eric Nielsen, Chief Economist at UniCredit, pointed out, "If the pandemic continues in even some countries, no country in the world can say it has fully recovered."

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) identified variant viruses as a new variable for the global economy this year. As variant viruses spread recently, Germany, Denmark, Portugal, Denmark, and Hungary have successively extended lockdown measures since the new year. Some countries are even considering airport closures. Israel, which has the highest vaccination rate in the world, still maintains lockdown measures and has closed its airports.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.