No Step 3 Increase Without Reversal Rent... "Effect Uncertain Even If Step 3 Raised in December"

"December is dominated by person-to-person contact infections... Preventing spread without increase is best"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Seo So-jeong] The government, judging that the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is transitioning from the peak of the 'third wave' to a declining trend, provided additional explanation on why it did not raise the 'social distancing' to level 3 last December despite the record-high number of confirmed cases.

Level 3 in South Korea is equivalent to a shutdown in other countries, causing significant social and economic damage. Considering that interpersonal contact was the main pattern of infection in December, the government explained that even if the level had been raised to 3, the effect might have been uncertain. From the government's perspective, the best method was to prevent the spread as much as possible without raising to level 3.

Son Young-rae, head of the Social Strategy Division at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters (CDSCH), said at a regular briefing held at the Government Seoul Office on the afternoon of the 10th, "It is not easy to accurately predict the future in a rapidly spreading situation, and it is a very difficult process to appropriately judge social and economic damage and quarantine responses to make decisions."

Regarding the reason for not raising to level 3 when the spread peaked in December, Son said, "Level 3 in our country is an almost quasi-lockdown measure equivalent to a shutdown abroad, characterized by prohibiting gatherings in a wide range of multi-use facilities or imposing business restrictions equivalent to that."

Currently, under level 2.5, about 127,000 gathering-prohibited facilities exist in the metropolitan area, but if level 3 is applied, approximately 2 million facilities nationwide would be prohibited from gathering or subjected to equivalent business restrictions.

About 2 million facilities prohibited from gathering under level 3... "Damage is significant"
Effect of 'Ban on private gatherings of 5 or more' stronger than level 3 manual

Son cautiously mentioned that although it is a retrospective evaluation, even if level 3 had been implemented, its effect might have been uncertain.

He explained, "The wave in November was mainly driven by cluster infections in multi-use facilities. The cluster infection rate was up to 63% in mid-November, but after raising social distancing to level 2.5, cluster infections decreased to 30%."

In particular, by the end of December, cluster infections in multi-use facilities were mostly in special types of institutions such as nursing hospitals, religious facilities like churches, or detention centers, which would not have been newly prohibited from gathering or subjected to operational restrictions even if level 3 had been implemented.

Son said, "It appears that the spread of infection through interpersonal contact led the pattern after December," and emphasized, "From the end of December, special year-end and New Year measures such as banning private gatherings of 5 or more, various travel restrictions, and party bans were implemented. These measures were not part of the level 3 manual but rather stronger, special, precise quarantine measures."

He continued, "Even if level 3 measures had been implemented in December, considering the significant social and economic damage and the clear damage to small business owners, and the fact that infection was mainly driven by interpersonal contact rather than cluster infections in multi-use facilities, it is difficult to confidently expect the effect."

If level 3 social distancing had been implemented without accompanying measures such as banning private gatherings of 5 or more, travel restrictions, and party bans, the effect might have been quite limited compared to the damage.

Son said, "The current reversal results are ultimately thanks to the efforts and participation of the people," adding, "If the current wave continues to stabilize, from the 17th onward, we are considering allowing businesses under gathering bans to operate under limited quarantine rules."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.