[Politics, That Day...] Ahn Cheol-soo, Two Places Where He Defeated 'Seoul Mayor' Park Won-soon... Apgujeong-dong and Daechi 1-dong

Ahn Cheol-soo Ranked 3rd in 2018 Seoul Mayoral Election, Strong Performance in Some Gangnam Areas... Key Factor in 2021 Rematch Is Unification with People Power Party Candidate

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day...’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures.

This is not the first time Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, has emerged as a key keyword in the Seoul mayoral election. There have been good opportunities where, had he chosen to run, he could have been ‘virtually elected,’ as well as cases where he received a disappointing result unbefitting his reputation.

During the October 2011 Seoul mayoral by-election, politician Ahn Cheol-soo’s popularity peaked. When he conceded the independent Seoul mayoral candidacy to Park Won-soon, chairman of the Hope Institute, the future of politician Ahn Cheol-soo seemed promising. However, reality differed from expectations. Politics is the art of timing. Politicians must boldly challenge at times and step back at others. Mastering timing is also a political skill.

In the 7th simultaneous local elections in June 2018, politician Ahn Cheol-soo chose to run. He ran as the Bareunmirae Party candidate and competed in a ‘three-way contest’ for the Seoul mayoral seat against Democratic Party candidate Park Won-soon and Liberty Korea Party candidate Kim Moon-soo.

Incumbent Park Won-soon was a formidable opponent with the advantage of incumbency. The contest against Kim Moon-soo was a matter of political pride. Given the nature of local elections, which unfold as a three-way battle among party organizations, the Bareunmirae Party banner was a disadvantage, but there was speculation that politician Ahn Cheol-soo’s ‘personal capabilities’ could overcome this.

However, the election results were below expectations. Park Won-soon won comfortably with 2,619,497 votes (52.79%), achieving a near-sweep by winning all 25 districts of Seoul.

At the Buddha's Birthday Celebration Ceremony held at Jogyesa Temple in Jongno-gu, Seoul in 2018, Park Won-soon, the Democratic Party candidate for Seoul mayor (right), Kim Moon-soo, the Liberty Korea Party candidate for Seoul mayor, and Ahn Cheol-soo, the Bareunmirae Party candidate for Seoul mayor, are attending. Photo by Moon Ho-nam munonam@

The second place was Kim Moon-soo with 1,158,487 votes (23.34%). Ahn Cheol-soo came in third with 970,374 votes (19.55%). Ahn Cheol-soo recorded around 20% of the vote in most of Seoul’s 25 districts.

Seocho-gu (22.43%), Gangnam-gu (22.34%), and Nowon-gu (22.24%) performed relatively well compared to other areas in Seoul. Conversely, Jungnang-gu (17.16%) and Gangseo-gu (18.00%) were below the average vote share.

Ahn Cheol-soo did not surpass Park Won-soon in any of Seoul’s 25 districts. However, when looking at individual neighborhoods (dong), there were unexpected results. There were places where voters chose Ahn Cheol-soo over Park Won-soon for Seoul mayor.

All these places were located in Gangnam-gu. Apgujeong-dong and Daechi 1-dong were neighborhoods that favored Ahn Cheol-soo. Apgujeong-dong, located along the Han River in Gangnam-gu, is one of Seoul’s representative affluent neighborhoods and is sensitive to real estate market trends.

In Apgujeong-dong, Park Won-soon received 2,533 votes, while Ahn Cheol-soo received 2,941 votes. Although the vote difference was not large, Ahn Cheol-soo held the advantage. The candidate who ranked first in Apgujeong-dong was Kim Moon-soo with 6,328 votes.

Daechi 1-dong was another area where Park Won-soon ranked third. Daechi 1-dong is an apartment-dense area between Dogok Station and Daechi Station on Subway Line 3, also sensitive to real estate policies. Ahn Cheol-soo received 3,196 votes there, narrowly surpassing Park Won-soon’s 3,111 votes. Kim Moon-soo again took first place with 4,327 votes in Daechi 1-dong.

The reason Ahn Cheol-soo should pay attention to the voting results in Apgujeong-dong and Daechi 1-dong relates to the ‘success scenario’ and ‘failure scenario’ of the April 2021 Seoul mayoral election. The June 2018 Seoul mayoral election was a one-sided victory for Park Won-soon in terms of trends, polls, and actual votes. Most political experts predicted Park Won-soon’s win.

Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People Party, held a press conference at the National Assembly Communication Office in Yeouido, Seoul on the 20th, and after announcing his candidacy for the Seoul mayoral by-election, he is answering questions from the press. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

Nevertheless, in some areas such as Apgujeong-dong and Daechi 1-dong, Ahn Cheol-soo received more votes than Park Won-soon. From the opposition’s perspective, next year’s Seoul mayoral election will not be an easy contest either, but the public sentiment is somewhat better than in the 2018 local elections.

What if a three-way contest unfolds in next year’s Seoul mayoral election? In some areas, Ahn Cheol-soo could surpass the Democratic Party candidate. However, such areas are likely to be limited. The scenario changes if a unification occurs between the People Power Party’s Seoul mayoral candidate and Ahn Cheol-soo, creating a ‘Democratic Party candidate vs. unified opposition candidate’ contest.

Analyzing the 2018 Seoul mayoral election results in Gangnam-gu, Park Won-soon received 107,743 votes. Kim Moon-soo received 87,305 votes, and Ahn Cheol-soo received 58,987 votes. Combining the votes for the Liberty Korea Party and Bareunmirae Party candidates in Gangnam-gu yields 38,549 more votes than the Democratic Party candidate. In terms of vote share, ‘Ahn Cheol-soo + Kim Moon-soo’ candidates had 55%, while Park Won-soon had 41%.

Gangnam-gu is relatively favorable to conservative parties. While it cannot be considered a direct barometer of Seoul’s public sentiment, it is related to the opposition’s winning model. If the opposition candidate significantly leads the Democratic Party candidate in the ‘Gangnam 3 districts’?Gangnam, Seocho, and Songpa?and creates a close race in other parts of Seoul, the chances of victory increase.

What if the opposition candidate falls behind or fails to widen the gap in the Gangnam 3 districts? Analyzing past Seoul mayoral election results suggests that the opposition candidate’s chances of winning are low. The unification of candidates from the People Power Party and the People’s Party is a prerequisite to enhancing the opposition’s competitiveness. If candidate unification from both camps, a ‘chemical fusion’ political synergy effect, and strong performance in the Gangnam 3 districts coincide, the Seoul mayoral election results could differ from those of the 2018 local elections.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.