Concerns Over Biden's North Korea Policy Returning to Obama's 'Strategic Patience' Approach

COVID-19 and Other Pending Issues... May Be Delayed
"Trump's Policy Ultimately Strategic Patience"... Difficult for North Korea to Change

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[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Concerns are growing among U.S. experts as the North Korea policy of the newly incoming Joe Biden administration is likely to revert to a similar approach as the 'strategic patience' of the past Barack Obama administration. If the Obama administration's policy is maintained as is, there is a risk that President-elect Biden may overlook the changed circumstances, such as North Korea effectively possessing nuclear weapons and improving its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology.

On the 15th (local time), The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Biden's North Korea policy will return to a principle-based traditional policy and will be less proactive compared to the Donald Trump administration. Analysts believe that it will be difficult for Biden to pursue an active North Korea policy amid overlapping preconditions such as the COVID-19 pandemic and U.S.-China conflicts.

The Biden administration's North Korea policy is attracting attention because it is the first U.S. administration to take office after North Korea developed ICBM technology capable of striking the U.S. mainland. North Korea developed the Hwasong-15 ICBM in November 2017, after the Trump administration took office. U.S. North Korea experts warn that if a simple situation management approach like strategic patience is repeated, North Korea's nuclear threat could escalate to an uncontrollable level.

Evans Revere, former U.S. State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asia and the Pacific, said in an interview with WSJ, "Biden's North Korea policy advisors argue that it is already too late to persuade North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to give up nuclear weapons," adding, "If the Biden administration takes office, it will want to start talks with North Korea to manage the issue and control the use of nuclear weapons rather than actively pursuing denuclearization." WSJ added that with North Korea's nuclear capabilities already capable of striking the U.S. mainland, the goal of denuclearization has become practically impossible, and nuclear weapons control negotiations are more realistic.

However, concerns have been raised that if the North Korea policy continues to focus only on controlling and managing North Korea's nuclear weapons, it could provide justification for nuclear armament to various Asian countries, making it difficult to prevent nuclear proliferation in the Asia region. Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), also told WSJ, "If nuclear weapons control negotiations on North Korea begin, it would essentially treat North Korea as a nuclear-armed state, potentially strengthening the nuclear ambitions of countries like Iran," warning, "Treating North Korea as a nuclear state would justify nuclear development in South Korea, which would trigger nuclear proliferation and an arms race in other Asian regional countries such as Japan and Taiwan, significantly weakening the non-proliferation regime across Asia."

Since the main direction of North Korea policy depends on North Korea's attitude, there is also analysis that nothing will particularly change even if the government changes. Robert Gallucci, former U.S. State Department special envoy for North Korea nuclear issues, recently told Voice of America (VOA), "The Trump administration's North Korea policy was no different from the strategic patience policy that froze capabilities and limited threats to the international community if North Korea did not come to negotiations," explaining, "During the Obama administration, the U.S. had no choice but to adopt strategic patience because North Korea did not first show willingness for negotiations and dialogue."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.