Another Lying US Poll... 'Why Was This Year's Presidential Election Wrong?'

Failed Poll Predictions in 2020 Following the 2016 Presidential Election
Misleading Polls... Could Change the Election Landscape
Declining Response Rates and Dishonest Voters

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] This year’s U.S. presidential election also saw opinion polls fail to accurately gauge public sentiment. Most U.S. polling firms predicted that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would comfortably win the election and that the Democrats would secure a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, heralding a so-called ‘Blue Wave.’ However, contrary to expectations, Biden faced razor-thin races in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. In Florida, where Biden was expected to have a slight lead or be neck-and-neck with President Donald Trump, the election ended with a victory for Trump.

The congressional polls were even more problematic. The Democrats, who held a majority in the House from the previous election, were expected to gain more seats this time, but their seats actually decreased. In the Senate, there were surprising upsets where Democratic candidates, who had never trailed in the polls, lost to Republican candidates. As a result, it has become increasingly difficult for the Democrats to secure a Senate majority.

At least in this election, the predicted winner Biden did win, avoiding the embarrassment of incorrectly forecasting Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State, as the winner instead of Donald Trump in the 2016 election. However, the reliability of opinion polls has become a new challenge.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Recently, The New York Times (NYT) examined why opinion polls are important and why polling predictions have failed in every presidential election, including this year’s.

Polling experts have admitted to failures regarding this year’s polls. David Shore, a data expert advising the Democratic campaign, said, "Judging by the polls alone, this year was also a bad year." Douglas Rivers, chief researcher at polling firm YouGov, also said, "We were clearly blindsided this time."

In the U.S. election system, which uses an indirect election method, opinion polls are especially important. Because the winner-takes-all system awards the majority of electoral votes to the candidate with even one more vote, candidates and campaigns do not need to spend manpower, funds, or time in regions where a lead is confirmed. Therefore, the accuracy of battleground state analysis is a decisive factor in the election outcome.

For example, in the 2016 presidential election, polls showed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton leading Republican candidate Donald Trump by a wide margin in the so-called Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. As a result, the Clinton campaign neglected to focus time and funds on these areas, leading to a loss in these states and ultimately losing the election despite winning the popular vote.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

This year, the opposite occurred. When polls showed President Trump trailing Biden by a large margin in Michigan and Wisconsin, the Trump campaign reduced rallies and advertising in these areas. However, the vote count revealed these states were extremely close. The Trump campaign’s strategic misjudgment significantly influenced the overall outcome.

Thus, opinion polls hold a crucial position in U.S. elections. Why do these polls show such discrepancies, affecting not only the general public but also politicians’ perspectives?

Experts first point to declining response rates in U.S. polls. In the 1980s, about half of those surveyed responded to polls, but now the response rate is only around 6%.

Moreover, among those who do not respond to polls, many distrust media outlets or polling organizations, and a significant portion of these are Republicans. Additionally, there are indications that some Trump supporters have lied in polls. The so-called ‘shy Trump’ voters who do not disclose their support are shaking up the polls.

Furthermore, this year’s election saw Democratic supporters opting for mail-in voting due to concerns about COVID-19 infection at polling stations, complicating the link between polls and actual votes.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

More fundamentally, it is pointed out that voters who remain undecided until the final moments cannot be captured by polls. Regardless of the election process, any last-minute events influencing voter sentiment remain unknown when voting takes place.

Additionally, the sampling methods based on demographic structures used in polls struggle to ensure voter representativeness. In the past, there was little difference in opinion between college-educated and non-college-educated white males, so polling quotas based on population composition sufficed. However, since the 2016 election, opinions among these groups have diverged. Traditional demographic analytical approaches have failed to detect this gap in public opinion.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.