Hong Sa's resignation, party charter revision, approval rating decline... Lee Nak-yeon on the test stand

Pressure on Economic Chief Spurs 'Impatience' Analysis
Party-wide Vote Fuels Crisis Talk
Pro-Moon Group Establishes Think Tank

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Nahum] Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, has been placed on a political trial. Along with a decline in presidential approval ratings, he is facing challenges from the pro-Moon Jae-in faction, causing the 'Lee Nak-yeon crisis theory' to slowly emerge.

At a meeting with reporters the day before, Lee refrained from commenting on Hong Nam-ki, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance's sudden resignation, saying, "I don't think this is something I should comment on."

However, in political circles, there is an analysis that Hong's resignation was triggered by Lee's 'impatience.' The party and government had been at odds over the stockholding amount criteria used to determine whether a shareholder is a major shareholder subject to capital gains tax on stocks. Ahead of the by-elections, the party, conscious of public opinion, insisted on a two-year postponement of the related enforcement decree and secured a concession from the government. Ultimately, the issue was resolved in the direction the Democratic Party wanted, but the repeated pressure applied to the Ministry of Economy and Finance to enforce their demands ended up forcing out the economic chief.

Lee's somewhat impatient policy decisions are also linked to his recently declining presidential approval ratings. Until April, he recorded over 40% in presidential approval ratings, showing overwhelming superiority in the intra-party competition with Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, but since then, he has not rebounded even once and recently has reached parity with Lee. Moreover, even in the opposition camp, where no clear presidential candidate was visible, a new alternative force has emerged in the form of Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, increasing uncertainty about the presidency.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The all-member vote to amend the party constitution became a decisive trigger for the 'Lee Nak-yeon crisis theory.' Despite clear responsibility on the part of the Democratic Party for the by-elections, including allegations of sexual harassment by the late Park Won-soon, former Seoul mayor's female secretary, and former Busan mayor Oh Keo-don against subordinates, Lee pushed ahead with the party constitution amendment to field a candidate, drawing criticism. Particularly, there are lingering concerns about the procedure. According to the party constitution and regulations, at least one-third (33%) of all party members must participate for the vote to be valid, but the final turnout for this vote was only 26.35%.

Meanwhile, Lee is facing another challenge within the party besides Governor Lee Jae-myung. The so-called 'Bu-eong-i' (Owl) faction, a core group of pro-Moon (pro-Moon Jae-in) supporters, is showing signs of consolidating power. In fact, this group plans to establish a mammoth think tank called the 'Democracy 4.0 Institute (tentative name),' with many pro-Moon lawmakers participating. It is analyzed that they are gathering lawmakers and experts within the party ahead of the political schedule leading to the by-elections and presidential primary to devise a pro-Moon-centered ruling plan. If Lee fails to produce significant achievements as the leader of the ruling party and a leading presidential candidate, it is only a matter of time before the pro-Moon mainstream faction turns their backs on him. He is at risk of losing both the support base and policy implementation that must be achieved within his short seven-month term.

However, since less than half of his term has passed, some say it is premature to mention a crisis theory. A Democratic Party lawmaker said, "Since it is still early in the term, it is too soon to evaluate Lee. No one knows whether the decisions he made, taking risks, will lead to better results."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.