Defense Minister Nominee Seo Wook: "Low Possibility of North Korea Launching SLBM in October"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Seo Wook, the nominee for Minister of National Defense, stated that the possibility of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) provocation by North Korea timed with the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea (October 10) is "judged to be low considering the preparation period."

In a written response submitted to the National Defense Committee of the National Assembly on the 14th, Seo said in response to a question about the military authorities' assessment of related media reports, "Currently, no imminent signs of an SLBM launch have been identified."

Regarding the analysis by the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which suggested that activities indicating preparation for an SLBM test launch were detected at the Sinpo Shipyard in South Hamgyong Province, North Korea, Seo evaluated, "It is presumed that these activities are more likely related to typhoon damage recovery rather than SLBM launch preparations."

On the progress of North Korea's SLBM development, he said, "It is estimated to be at the prototype development and test evaluation stage," adding, "No signs of imminent mass production or operational deployment have been identified."

However, he explained, "It is understood that efforts to continuously enhance conventional submarine forces capable of carrying SLBMs are ongoing." Regarding the capability to build new nuclear submarines, he said, "Evaluation is limited."

Regarding the possibility of additional provocations such as North Korea's nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches, Seo stated, "Since the demolition event of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in May 2018, the tunnels for nuclear testing have been technically unusable," and assessed that "the possibility of additional nuclear tests in the short term is low."

He also mentioned that no imminent signs related to recent North Korean ballistic missile launches have been identified, and that South Korea and the U.S. are closely cooperating to monitor the situation.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.