US National Academy of Sciences: "4 out of 7 COVID-19 Vaccines Supported by US Government May Fail"

General Infectious Disease Vaccine Success Rate 33.4%
"Sequential Distribution in 4 Phases After Approval Is Efficient for Vaccines"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), which advises the U.S. health authorities on pandemic-related policies, stated that some of the COVID-19 vaccines supported by the U.S. government may fail during Phase 3 clinical trials and approval verification processes. This is interpreted as a warning regarding COVID-19 vaccines that are being developed faster than existing vaccines and may be released without thorough safety verification.

According to CNBC on the 1st (local time), NASEM released a draft report outlining the distribution plan for government-approved COVID-19 vaccines. The draft forecasted that "Operation Warp Speed, promoted by the Donald Trump administration to support the rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines, is expected to support up to seven vaccines undergoing Phase 3 clinical trials involving 30,000 participants, but four of these are likely to fail and only three will succeed."

NASEM emphasized, "According to a study published in the scientific journal Biostatistics, the success rate of infectious disease vaccines passing clinical trials and regulatory approval is only 33.4%." Additionally, they added, "It is more effective to distribute approved vaccines in four stages rather than all at once, with vulnerable groups such as the elderly, those with underlying conditions, and healthcare workers receiving vaccinations first."

Earlier, as part of Operation Warp Speed, the U.S. had already invested billions of dollars by last month in vaccine candidates from six companies, including Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca. Among these, vaccines from AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Moderna have entered Phase 3 clinical trials in the U.S. and several other countries. U.S. health officials remain optimistic that at least one safe and effective vaccine will be developed by the end of this year, and more than two by early next year.

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