Suga Emerges as Leading Candidate for Japan's Next Prime Minister... "Secures 60% Support Among Diet Members"

Hosoda Faction, the Largest Faction, and Aso Faction, the Second Faction, Express Support... Suga Announces Candidacy on the 2nd
Key Variable Is Voting Method... Bicameral Parliamentary Group Meeting Excluding Party Member Voting 'Likely'

Yoshihide Suga, Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan
Photo by EPA Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] The momentum is growing for Yoshihide Suga, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, to become the successor to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. He has secured the support of 60% of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers, giving him a clear advantage in the party presidential election that will decide Japan's next prime minister. Once the method for selecting the party president is finalized soon, Minister Suga is expected to declare his candidacy and solidify his frontrunner status.

On the 1st, Yomiuri Shimbun reported that after confirming the support of LDP lawmakers' factions, about 60% have pledged their backing for Minister Suga. The largest faction led by Prime Minister Abe, the Hosoda faction (98 members), and the Aso faction (54 members) led by Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, have expressed support for Minister Suga. Earlier, the Nikai faction (47 members) led by LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai had already declared their support. Asahi Shimbun reported, "Not only the major factions but also various groups including independents are gradually expressing their support for Minister Suga."

The rapid spread of the Suga frontrunner theory is due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and growing voices within the party calling for a stable continuation of the Abe cabinet's policies, including economic measures. Hiroyuki Hosoda, chairman of the Hosoda faction and former LDP Secretary-General, said, "In terms of succeeding the Abe cabinet, I hope he will exert his strength as a promising candidate for party president."

As the Suga frontrunner theory spreads, Fumio Kishida, the LDP Policy Research Council chairman who was mentioned as a successor to Prime Minister Abe, and Shigeru Ishiba, former Secretary-General who led in public opinion polls, have been pushed back. Kishida visited the Prime Minister's residence the day before to request Abe's support but reportedly received a response saying, "We refrain from mentioning individual names." In Ishiba's case, he had tried to persuade lawmakers without factional ties by leveraging his name recognition to secure a weak party base, but with the independent Suga entering the party presidential race, it has become difficult to gain their support.

However, variables remain. The LDP is expected to announce the method and schedule for selecting the party president on the day, and the voting method is anticipated to be decisive. Currently, it is likely that voting will be conducted through a joint meeting of both houses of the Diet. This method combines 394 votes from Diet members and 141 votes from representatives of the LDP's prefectural federations, totaling 535 votes to decide the next party president. Generally, both Diet members (394 votes) and party members (394 votes) participate in electing the next president, but in urgent situations, the weight of party member votes is significantly reduced to conduct a simplified vote.

If the joint meeting method is adopted, Minister Suga, who has strong support among Diet members, will have an advantage, whereas if the party member voting method is chosen, former Secretary-General Ishiba, who enjoys higher public support, will be favored. The leadership plans to adopt the joint meeting method, a simplified vote centered on Diet members, but there are calls from younger lawmakers to hold a party member vote. NHK reported, "Negotiations are expected to be prolonged."

Kishida and Ishiba are scheduled to declare their candidacies on the day, while Minister Suga will officially announce his candidacy late in the afternoon on the 2nd, after the party president selection method and schedule are fully disclosed. Japanese media forecast that the party presidential election will be officially announced on the 8th, voting and counting will take place on the 14th, and the extraordinary Diet session will convene on the 16th to select the next prime minister.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.