"Quarantine or Economy?" Raising Social Distancing to Level 3, What Do You Think?

Discussion on Raising Social Distancing to Level 3
Civilians Debate "Consider Economic Impact" vs "Stopping Spread is Priority"
Infectious Disease Society: "Level 3 Distancing Inevitable"
Health Authorities: "Too Early to Confirm Level 2 Effectiveness... Level 3 Also Under Review"

At a bus stop in Jung-gu, Seoul, citizens wearing masks are hurrying to work. Photo by Yonhap News.

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Ga-yeon] Recently, due to the surge in COVID-19 cases, infectious disease experts have expressed the opinion that it is inevitable to consider raising social distancing to Level 3. In the political sphere, there are also views that Level 3 should be implemented in earnest.

The problem lies in the economic repercussions. Implementing Level 3 involves lockdown-level measures that prohibit the use of multi-use facilities. In other countries, the quarter in which such measures were implemented saw a decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) by more than 10%.

As a result, there are arguments for the necessity of preemptive measures despite the enormous economic losses expected from raising to Level 3, while others emphasize the need for cautious decisions, anticipating damage not only to self-employed individuals but also to workers in unstable employment forms. The government, the Blue House, political circles, and infectious disease experts are actively discussing and reviewing the implementation of this issue.

President Moon Jae-in stated at the senior secretaries' meeting on the 24th, "Raising to Level 3 is not a choice to be taken lightly. Daily life will come to a halt, and we must endure truly enormous economic damage," describing the current situation as the most serious crisis, even more severe than the early COVID-19 Shincheonji incident. This is interpreted as an opinion that raising social distancing to Level 3 is inevitable if the current surge in COVID-19 cases continues.

The government also announced that if the spread of COVID-19 centered in the metropolitan area is not contained within this week, consideration of raising to Level 3 will be unavoidable.

On the same day, Park Neung-hoo, Minister of Health and Welfare, appeared at the National Assembly Budget and Accounts Special Committee comprehensive policy inquiry for the 2019 fiscal year settlement and responded to Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Won-i's question, "Given the rapid increase in confirmed cases, shouldn't we prepare for social distancing Level 3?" by saying, "If the spread of infection occurring in the metropolitan area is not stopped within this week, I think it is inevitable to consider raising social distancing measures to Level 3."

Deputy Minister of Health and Welfare Kim Kang-lip also explained, in response to independent lawmaker Lee Yong-ho's claim that "medical circles and infectious disease societies point out that Level 3 should be raised immediately. There is a saying that overreaction is better than delayed response," that "raising to Level 3 is a very serious measure."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

As the government and the Blue House mentioned the inevitability of raising to Level 3 due to the spread of COVID-19, opinions have emerged in the political sphere that this should be seriously considered.

Former lawmaker Kim Boo-kyum, who is running for the Democratic Party leadership, wrote on his Facebook on the 23rd, "Director Jeong Eun-kyeong has mentioned the consideration of social distancing Level 3 five times in her statements, showing her desperate feelings as the person responsible for quarantine. The government must also be deliberating on issuing Level 3," emphasizing, "If the opinions of quarantine experts converge on 'raising to Level 3,' the government and political circles must follow."

Sim Sang-jung, leader of the Justice Party, also urged raising to Level 3. On the 24th, she wrote on her Facebook, "What is the government hesitating about? How many more confirmed cases are they waiting for?" and added, "I hope the government immediately decides to raise social distancing to Level 3 in the metropolitan area." She raised her voice, saying, "The best quarantine is the best economic measure."

The problem is that if social distancing is raised to Level 3, social and economic activities will be restricted, making economic damage inevitable. From March 22 to April 19, when COVID-19 rapidly spread, the German government implemented de facto lockdown measures equivalent to social distancing Level 3.

The aftereffects were not insignificant. In March and April, German retail sales decreased by more than 5% compared to the previous month, resulting in a more than 10% drop in GDP in the second quarter.

Also, according to the Washington Post on July 1 (local time), investment bank Goldman Sachs analyzed in a report that "the economic lockdown orders issued across the United States earlier this year caused the U.S. GDP to decrease by nearly 5%."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Our situation is no different. Under social distancing Level 3, gatherings of 10 or more people indoors and outdoors are prohibited, and only essential public and corporate activities are allowed.

In-person classes and professional sports games are completely banned, and operations of high-risk facilities such as clubs and PC rooms, as well as movie theaters and religious facilities, are suspended. Restaurants and other daily life facilities can operate, but except for hospitals and gas stations, they must close after 9 p.m.

Given this situation, economic growth is inevitably slowed. Even under the current Level 2 measures, pessimistic economic forecasts are emerging.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently stated that if COVID-19 does not spread again, South Korea's growth rate this year will be -0.8%, but if a second global COVID-19 shock occurs, it is expected to fall to -2.0%.

In the previous quarter, advanced countries implemented economic lockdown measures, causing South Korean exports to plummet by 16.6%, the worst performance since 1963. During this period, the growth rate fell to -3.3%.

KB Securities predicted that even if social distancing Level 3 is implemented in the metropolitan area for just two weeks, the annual growth rate will drop by about 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points.

On the 24th, medical staff at the Safe Clinic set up in front of the main building of Severance Hospital in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, were checking a thermometer while performing tasks related to COVID-19 testing. Photo by Yonhap News

As a result, there are differing opinions among citizens regarding the decision to raise to Level 3.

While many agree that raising to Level 3 is inevitable for COVID-19 prevention and quarantine, concerns about enormous economic losses are also expressed. In particular, there is a view that self-employed individuals and workers in unstable employment forms will inevitably face economic difficulties.

A 29-year-old office worker currently working remotely said, "Isn't the COVID-19 resurgence continuing for the second week? I feel anxious every day, and when I search the news, experts keep saying they are considering raising to Level 3," adding, "That makes me worry that the current situation is very serious. If we don't stop it now, it feels like 'we are all doomed together.'"

He continued, "Of course, I think the economic damage will be significant if Level 3 is raised. But whether that pain will be short-term or long-term depends on the current situation," adding, "If we raise to Level 3 and stop the spread of COVID-19, wouldn't that prevent economic damage that would last for a long time?"

A 22-year-old university student expressed concern, saying, "There are people who live day-to-day, so who will take responsibility for their livelihoods if Level 3 is raised?"

He added, "My parents run a self-employed business, so I can't help but worry about that. Even if the government supports part of the damage when Level 3 is raised, that won't continue forever. Moreover, if the economy takes a big hit once, the aftermath will continue, so what about the damage that follows?" emphasizing, "If unavoidable, Level 3 should be raised, but the government must be very cautious in making the decision."

Public opinion polls also show that economic deterioration cannot be ignored, and cautious decisions are needed. According to one survey, more than half of the public answered that raising social distancing to Level 3 is necessary.

According to Realmeter on the 24th, a survey commissioned by YTN's 'The News' on the necessity of strengthening social distancing to Level 3 found that 55.9% of respondents answered, "I think it is a necessary measure to block the spread of infection early." Meanwhile, 40.1% of respondents said, "I think a cautious decision should be made considering economic impacts."

Yoon Tae-ho, Head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters' Quarantine General Division, is answering reporters' questions after concluding the regular COVID-19 response briefing at the Government Complex Sejong in Sejong City on the morning of the 24th. Photo by Yonhap News

While cautious opinions are emerging regarding social distancing Level 3, experts including the Infectious Disease Society have urged raising to Level 3, citing the seriousness of the current COVID-19 spread.

The Korean Society of Infectious Diseases and related academic societies issued a statement on the 24th, saying, "As of the 23rd, nationwide social distancing Level 2 has been implemented, but it is insufficient to respond to the current epidemic situation," emphasizing, "Quarantine measures must be applied early to achieve sufficient effect."

They also urged the public to "minimize face-to-face activities as much as possible and strictly practice social distancing and mask-wearing during unavoidable gatherings," and "wear masks properly and maintain hand hygiene," repeatedly calling for the public to follow personal quarantine rules.

The quarantine authorities are confirming the effects of Level 2 social distancing while actively reviewing Level 3.

Yoon Tae-ho, head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters' quarantine team, said at a COVID-19 response briefing at the Government Complex Sejong in Sejong City on the same day, "Nationwide Level 2 measures started yesterday, and although it is somewhat early to confirm the effect of Level 2 in the metropolitan area, since the spread continues, we are actively reviewing Level 3," adding, "However, the decision to immediately raise to Level 3 must be made through government discussions."

Meanwhile, according to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 24th, as of 12 p.m. that day, the number of new confirmed domestic cases was 266, bringing the total confirmed cases to 17,665.

Since the resurgence of cluster infections on the 14th, the daily number of confirmed cases has remained in the triple digits for 11 consecutive days. In particular, from the 21st to the 23rd, the number of new confirmed cases was 324, 332, and 397, respectively, marking three consecutive days in the 300s.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.