"Even After Getting the COVID Vaccine... Effectiveness Less Than 50%"

"Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Also 40-60%"... Herd Immunity Requires Over 75%
Measles and Smallpox Vaccines, Which Eradicated Epidemics, Exceed 90% Effectiveness

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] There is a forecast that the effectiveness of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine will be difficult to exceed 50%. Considering that a preventive effect of 75% or higher is generally needed to help form herd immunity, it seems unlikely that the possibility of infection can be completely ruled out even after receiving the COVID-19 vaccine.

On the 18th (local time), Carlos Del Rio, a professor at Emory University School of Medicine who participated in Moderna's Phase 3 clinical trial, said in an interview with CNBC, "It will be difficult to develop a COVID-19 vaccine with more than 50% preventive effectiveness," adding, "Vaccines related to respiratory viruses are inherently difficult to develop, and even the annual flu vaccine has only 40-60% effectiveness."

He continued, "If the preventive effectiveness is 50%, there is still a possibility of infection even after vaccination." Vaccine effectiveness is a figure that shows how much the probability of infection with COVID-19 can be reduced through vaccination. Vaccines for diseases such as smallpox and measles, which are currently considered completely conquered, are known to have preventive effectiveness exceeding 90%.

According to CNBC, health authorities such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) are also not expecting the COVID-19 vaccine to have more than 50% preventive effectiveness. Steven Hahn, director of the FDA, stated at a press conference last month, "A vaccine with 50% effectiveness will still be of great help for now," and added, "A vaccine with 100% effectiveness is unrealistic." The FDA is reportedly able to review approval for vaccines with preventive effectiveness of 50% or higher, following the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines.

Accordingly, concerns are emerging that even if a vaccine is developed, it will be difficult to eradicate COVID-19 in local communities. Earlier, on the 7th, Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at an online seminar hosted by Brown University, "Even assuming about 70% of the total population receives the vaccine, if the vaccine does not have more than 75% effectiveness, it will be difficult to expect herd immunity," adding, "Since the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine is unknown whether it will be 50% or 60%, public health response measures must continue even after the vaccine is released."

In the past, major infectious diseases were considered completely conquered when vaccine effectiveness reached over 90%. According to the WHO, the measles vaccine has an effectiveness of 98%, while diphtheria and smallpox vaccines reach 97% and 95%, respectively. These diseases no longer spread in developed countries where widespread vaccination has been conducted.

The spread of COVID-19 is still raging worldwide. According to the global statistics site Worldometer's COVID-19 tally, as of this day, the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide reached 22,292,777, an increase of 249,269 from the previous day. The cumulative death toll was recorded at 783,349. India, ranked third in cumulative confirmed cases after the United States (5,653,532) and Brazil (3,411,872), recorded the highest daily confirmed cases at 65,022.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.