'October Surprise' Likely Limited to US Election... Will South Korea Accelerate Its Independent Path?

Speculation Runs Wild on Dramatic Dialogue Resumption... Trump Shifts to Possibility of Agreement with North Korea Assuming Re-election
Desperate Need to Break Inter-Korean Deadlock... Government Pushes 'Small Trade' with North Korea via Barter System

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Cheol-young] Regardless of the U.S. political schedule, the government’s efforts to restore inter-Korean exchange and cooperation, which have been struggling due to North Korea sanctions, are gaining momentum. The much-anticipated “October Surprise (North Korea-U.S. summit),” which drew attention after President Donald Trump hinted at it, has been revealed to be virtually impossible, making independent initiatives and achievements even more urgent.

Expectations for a third North Korea-U.S. summit before the U.S. presidential election have significantly diminished. In July, President Trump mentioned the possibility of resuming talks, saying, “If it helps, the North Korea and U.S. leaders can meet.” However, just a month later, on the 7th, he stated, “If I win the election, I will very quickly reach agreements with Iran and North Korea.” By clearly stating that he would engage in talks on the premise of re-election, he appears to have shifted his strategy from raising expectations with dramatic events to managing the situation based on re-election.

President Trump’s July remarks led to various speculations. They even caused discord with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Deputy Secretary Stephen Biegun, who visited Korea last month. It is now analyzed that the administration judged that such baseless statements related to foreign policy could negatively affect the November election. Advisors like Secretary Pompeo and Deputy Secretary Biegun have consistently expressed the view that it is difficult to resume North Korea-U.S. talks without substantial progress.

Japanese media’s suggestion of the U.S. government possibly establishing a North Korea-U.S. liaison office is also interpreted as a carrot for managing the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Although the establishment of a liaison office has been discussed several times, it has not led to substantial progress. On the 9th, Kyodo News reported that the U.S. government is considering setting up a liaison office to advance the stalled denuclearization negotiations. It also reported that both South Korea and Japan are aware of this intention. A government official dismissed it as an old idea with nothing new.

North Korea’s stance remains unchanged, likely due to its low trust in the U.S. Since the “Hanoi No Deal,” North Korea has shown no response to resuming talks. With the November U.S. election likely to be a mere electoral tool and the election outcome uncertain, North Korea appears to be adopting a wait-and-see attitude rather than making concrete statements.

Therefore, finding ways to break the deadlock between the two Koreas is urgently needed. Recently, at the request of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lee Do-hoon, head of the Korea Peninsula Peace Negotiation Office, met with Minister of Unification Lee In-young and reported on the Korean Peninsula situation, recent North Korea-U.S. consultation trends, North Korea sanctions, and the operation status of the South Korea-U.S. working group. Minister Lee In-young requested active cooperation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

At the same time, the Ministry of Unification has actively pushed for barter trade with North Korea. The intention is to expand trade within the scope that does not violate North Korea sanctions. The general view is that choosing a barter trade method avoids bank transactions or large cash transfers with North Korea, thus eliminating the possibility of violating sanctions. Minister Lee has proposed exchanging North Korea’s water from Mount Kumgang, water from Mount Baekdu, and Daedonggang Makgeolli for South Korea’s rice and medicines since before his inauguration.

However, even small-scale barter trade may require discussions with the U.S. A Ministry of Unification official stated, “In principle, matters conducted within the framework of North Korea sanctions are not considered issues for consultation with the South Korea-U.S. working group,” adding, “If necessary, communication with the U.S. side is possible. However, we are not at the stage of discussing specifics yet.”

[Image source=Yonhap News]

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.