Meteorological Administration, Nicknamed 'Obocheong,' Why Are Weather Forecasts Often Inaccurate?

16 Dead, 11 Missing Due to Continuous Heavy Rain
Some Citizens Check Weather One by One Using Map App CCTV
KMA: "Due to Abnormal Temperature Phenomenon"

On the afternoon of the 5th, the area around Saengchang-ri, Kimhwa-eup, Cheorwon-gun, Gangwon Province was flooded due to heavy rain. In the Cheorwon area, more than 670mm of heavy rain fell over five days. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Heo Midam] "I trusted the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and went out for a walk, but I got drenched in the rain," "Isn't weather misinformation a daily occurrence?"

As damage from recent heavy rains continues to mount, public complaints against the KMA have intensified. The KMA predicted that this summer's heatwave period would be longer than usual, but the heatwave was shorter, and instead, the monsoon season lasted longer than expected. Especially due to the unpredictable weather causing frequent forecast errors, citizens have been criticizing the KMA by calling it 'Guracheong' (Liar Agency), 'Obocheong' (False Forecast Agency), and 'Junggecheong' (Relay Agency). The KMA explained that abnormal high-temperature phenomena influenced the weather.

According to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters as of 6 a.m. on the 6th, 16 deaths, 11 missing persons, and 7 injuries have been reported related to the heavy rain since the 1st.

Damage nationwide due to this heavy rain is also spreading. There are 4,909 temporary evacuees nationwide, with more than half, 2,983, being residents of Gyeonggi Province, and 1,205 affected in Gangwon Province.

As the 'record-breaking monsoon' continues, criticism toward the KMA, which initially predicted a 'record-breaking heatwave,' has also intensified.

In May, the KMA forecasted that a record-breaking heatwave would hit this summer, with the number of heatwave days increasing from the usual 9.8 days to up to 25 days this year. However, the national average temperature last month (22.5°C) was about 2 degrees lower than last year, and the number of heatwave days until last month was only 4 days.

Rainfall predictions also missed the mark. The KMA forecasted that rainfall this year would be similar to the average, but since June, a record-breaking monsoon has continued, and rainfall has greatly exceeded expectations. During the monsoon period, rainfall in the central region was 494.7 mm, while the southern region and Jeju recorded 566.5 mm and 562.4 mm respectively. This already exceeds the average rainfall by 160 to 180 mm compared to normal years.

This monsoon is expected to continue for more than a week. The longest monsoon record in South Korea was until August 10 in 1987. This year, there is a possibility of breaking this record with a 'record-breaking' long monsoon.

Due to the influence of moisture from the monsoon front and a typhoon, most regions nationwide experienced rain on the 6th. Commuters are hurrying their steps at Gwanghwamun Intersection in Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

As a result, citizens continue to criticize the KMA by calling it 'Guracheong' (Liar Agency) and 'Obocheong' (False Forecast Agency).

Office worker Kim (27) said, "If I take an umbrella because it says it will rain, it doesn't rain, and if it says it won't rain, it does," adding, "I just take the KMA forecast as 'believe it or not' and only use it as a reference."

He continued, "Didn't they say there would definitely be a heatwave this year? But I didn't expect such a long monsoon," adding, "Now, even if the KMA says it won't rain, I can't trust it, so I always carry an umbrella."

The KMA's rainfall forecast accuracy rate has not exceeded 50% in the past five years. According to data released by the Board of Audit and Inspection, the KMA's rainfall forecast accuracy rate from 2012 to 2016 was only 46%.

According to the Board of Audit and Inspection, during this period, out of 5,193 forecasts predicting rain, it actually rained 3,228 times (62%). There were also 1,808 cases where it rained without a forecast of rain. The accuracy rate for rainfall occurrence dropped from 47.7% in 2012 to 45.2% in 2016.

At around 8:50 a.m. on the 6th, CCTV monitor screen located in Yongsan-gu, Seoul. Photo by Naver Map app screen capture.

As distrust in the KMA grows, recently, various methods to check rainfall using traffic CCTV through map applications have been shared in online communities.

Comments on these posts include, "This is good information. I will use it well," "I was already skeptical because the KMA forecasts kept being wrong, but I didn't know there was such a method," and "You can directly see if people are using umbrellas, so it seems 100% accurate."

The KMA maintains that abnormal high-temperature phenomena have affected the weather. A KMA official told Asia Economy in a phone interview, "The prediction of the heatwave was made in May, about 70 days ago. To accurately predict the weather 70 days ahead, climate changes must be minimal. However, this year, abnormal climate phenomena have continued, causing unpredictable situations."

He added, "Supercomputers are just one tool to introduce applications that can consider more factors," and "The KMA is also making efforts to minimize damage."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.