Hankyung Research Institute "South Korea's Population Halved by 2060... Need to Improve Efficiency of Low Birthrate Policies"

[Asia Economy Reporter Ki-min Lee] It is projected that the number of newborns this year will be halved by 2060, the year they turn 40, resulting in a "half-sized Korea," prompting calls to enhance the efficiency of low birthrate countermeasures.

The Korea Economic Research Institute (KERI) stated on the 22nd that, as the population symbolizing national power?such as the working-age population, school-age population, and active military conscription candidates?is expected to decrease to less than half by 2060, related measures must be prepared.

According to the Low Birthrate and Aging Society Committee and others, South Korea's low birthrate budget increased by an average of 21.1% annually over 10 years since 2011, reaching a total of 209.5 trillion won. In contrast, the total fertility rate decreased by 0.32, from 1.24 in 2011 to 0.92 in 2019. The total fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman aged 15 to 49 is expected to have in her lifetime.

Last year, South Korea's total fertility rate ranked the lowest among 203 countries worldwide. According to Statistics Korea and others, by 2060, the working-age population is expected to decrease to 48.1% of this year's level, and the school-age population (ages 6 to 21) to 42.8%. Additionally, KERI estimated the number of active military conscription candidates based on the population of 19-year-old males from Statistics Korea's future population projections, finding that by 2060, this number will decrease to 38.7% of this year's figure.

Meanwhile, due to low birthrate and aging, the number of elderly people supported per working-age individual is expected to increase from 0.22 to 0.98, meaning the burden on future generations will rise 4.5 times, KERI predicted.

KERI pointed out that fundamental improvements in support measures are required to alleviate childbirth and childcare burdens and overcome low birthrate. Through a comparative analysis of childbirth support policies in OECD countries, KERI proposed alternatives to overcome low birthrate, including ▲ expanding cash assistance to improve fiscal efficiency ▲ easing childcare costs by increasing the enrollment rate in public and national kindergartens ▲ and expanding employment opportunities through labor market flexibility.

Choo Kwang-ho, Director of Economic Policy at KERI, expressed concern, saying, “Korea is trapped in an unprecedented 'super-low birthrate quagmire' globally,” adding, “If this continues, there will be comprehensive damage to GDP, national security, and academic achievement.” He emphasized, “Enhancing the efficiency of low birthrate policies to instill confidence in childbirth and childcare among young people is of utmost importance.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.