[The Editors' Verdict] Kim Jong-un Suspends Hostile Actions... What Comes Next?

Hong Min, Director of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification
Kim Jong-un's "Suspension Card" and Its Implications
A New Approach Needed for Inter-Korean Relations and U.S. Diplomacy

North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un has appeared amid the escalating crisis in inter-Korean relations. This moment evokes the ancient Greek theatrical device 'Deus ex machina,' where a god descends from the stage ceiling to resolve conflict at the brink of catastrophe. With his appearance, all offensives were instantly 'paused.' Unprecedented measures such as the Workers' Party Central Military Commission's 'preliminary meeting,' 'video conference,' and 'suspension' were employed. Despite the relentless offensive, North Korea has stated that it would determine the intensity and timing of its 'hostile actions' based on South Korea's conduct. This suggests that the initial goal was not a swift, decisive severance.

It seems the purpose was to significantly shake the South. The aim was to inject tension into South Korea's approach to the North and to verify the sincerity and will to implement agreements. As a result, North Korea may have made a positive assessment for the time being. Kim Jong-un's 'suspension' card is a powerful weapon that will dominate the political landscape in the second half of the year. The core of this suspension card is the 'tension' that the offensive could resume if the issues raised by North Korea are not resolved in some way. The ball has been passed to the South. At the same time, it can be seen as a message to the United States not to interfere with the implementation of inter-Korean agreements.

The issues raised by North Korea can be confirmed through a statement by Kim Yo-jong, First Deputy Director of the Workers' Party Central Committee, on June 17. The statement is composed of three main parts: resolving the leaflet issue, taking responsible attitudes toward the non-implementation of inter-Korean agreements, and South Korea's autonomous actions separate from the South Korea-U.S. alliance. It calls for an end to the leaflet issue by any means. Leaflets are problematic both for internal governance in North Korea and for inter-Korean relations. It also demands a bold push for the implementation of inter-Korean agreements, which had been met with passive attitudes. In this process, it calls for blocking U.S. intervention and refraining from military threats.

So how should we respond? First, an end to the leaflet issue is necessary. Measures must be taken to firmly prevent recurrence from the perspectives of the spirit of inter-Korean agreements, legal, and human rights dimensions. Second, management of messages to the North is essential. Messages should focus on concrete and practical items that can actually be done, rather than abstract concepts. Third, a systematic review and reestablishment of implementation plans for agreements such as the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration and the Pyongyang Joint Declaration are needed. This includes a comprehensive review of what should be pursued domestically in South Korea, issues to be resolved through inter-Korean consultations, and cooperation with the international community. Lastly, the short- and mid-to-long-term goals of North Korea policy should be reset, focusing on the essential issues of inter-Korean agreements. Prioritization within the current administration's term is especially necessary.

Behind North Korea's suspension decision are two messages sent to the United States. One is a call not to obstruct inter-Korean implementation. It implies that internal achievements from the 2018 political transition are needed regardless. Even if North Korea-U.S. relations are difficult at the moment, there should at least be achievements in inter-Korean implementation. The other message is that North Korea intends to maintain a willingness to negotiate with the U.S., regardless of which administration comes into power. Despite external uncertainties this year, North Korea has avoided direct criticism of the U.S. This indicates Kim Jong-un's strong desire to establish a new relationship with the United States. It also suggests that his commitment to 'denuclearization' depends on relations with the U.S.

Ultimately, behind the suspension decision lie concerns that their offensive against the South could inadvertently provide justification for military tensions with the U.S. and South Korea, and for joint military exercises; worries about U.S. President Donald Trump's potential hardline shift toward North Korea; maintaining the North Korea-U.S. negotiation framework; and a reassessment of the Moon Jae-in administration's diplomatic capabilities. Former White House National Security Council (NSC) advisor John Bolton's memoir highlights bureaucratic resistance and infighting within the U.S. administration unseen from North Korea's perspective, as well as South Korea's diplomatic skills behind the scenes. It is now time for a new approach that reconsiders the 'role theory' which distinguished what South and North Korea should do from what North Korea and the U.S. should do?for both Koreas.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.