North-South Relations on the Brink... "Special Envoy to North Korea and Inter-Korean Summit Needed"

Expert Analysis on the Situation of North Korea's Unilateral Severance of Communication Channels

On the 7th, North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un held the 13th Political Bureau meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party to discuss measures for developing a self-reliant economy and improving the people's living standards, the Rodong Sinmun reported on the 8th.

As North Korea takes the drastic step of completely cutting off and dismantling inter-Korean communication lines, pushing inter-Korean relations to the brink, experts advise that the government does not need to cling to North Korea but should maintain points of dialogue between the two Koreas through measures such as dispatching special envoys.

Jung Se-hyun, Senior Vice Chairman of the Democratic Peaceful Unification Advisory Council, said in a KBS radio interview on the 9th, "The winter of inter-Korean relations has come sooner than expected," adding, "But there is no need to cling to North Korea."

Jung explained, "The core of North Korea's message is dissatisfaction over our failure to faithfully implement the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the September 19 Pyongyang Declaration, and subsequent military agreements, which has been building up and was triggered this time by the leaflet (anti-North Korea leaflets) incident." He added, "Even now, the government should take legal measures to ban leaflets and, when such actions are forcibly carried out under the pretext of freedom of expression, should stop them by mobilizing police or even military forces."

Regarding the controversy over the call for military mobilization, he emphasized that, given the military border area, the military is more effective than police forces.

Im Eul-chul, a professor at the Far East Institute of Kyungnam University, said, "North Korea's typical brinkmanship tactics are being repeated," and assessed, "North Korea has continuously stated that the current inter-Korean situation is very serious and judged that high-intensity pressure measures are necessary to demonstrate this perception through actions."

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, analyzed, "Considering the US-China conflict phase, internal control due to the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), and poor economic performance, North Korea has set a strategy to create tension rather than maintain stagnant inter-Korean relations, aiming to take the initiative in the future."

North Korea has not only dismantled the inter-Korean joint liaison office but also mentioned the complete withdrawal from the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the annulment of the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement, and these warnings are expected to have a high possibility of becoming reality.

Jung Dae-jin, a professor at Ajou University, said, "North Korea's recent actions are the implementation of the first phase of the three measures announced by Kim Yo-jong, First Deputy Director of the Workers' Party Central Committee, in her statement on the 4th," adding, "The confiscation of assets for the complete withdrawal from the Kaesong Industrial Complex also appears imminent."

There are particular concerns that if North Korea annuls the September 19 military agreement and continues military provocations, the collapse of inter-Korean relations will be inevitable. Efforts by the government to secure dialogue channels to prevent further deterioration of the situation are urgently needed.

Cho Han-bum, senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "If North Korea were truly considering a collapse, it would have cut off all dialogue channels and only then notified us," adding, "The fact that they gave a warning act means they left at least some room." He emphasized, "We must use all means, including high-level special envoys and diplomatic channels such as through China, to secure dialogue channels with North Korea and prevent the situation from worsening." He also stressed, "A South-North summit is necessary."

Professor Jung also interpreted, "North Korea seems to want a 'surprise one-point South-North summit' where cooperation can be discussed at the level they desire." He explained, "Looking at past behavior, North Korea appears to want a scenario where President Moon Jae-in expresses regret over the leaflet incident that insulted their supreme dignity and demands prevention of recurrence, while the South proposes dialogue and reluctantly accepts it."

There are also points raised that the response to the leaflet distribution scheduled around the 25th is crucial to prevent the two Koreas from being driven into a more extreme situation. Professor Im said, "To avoid extreme clashes between the two Koreas, political power must be exercised without hesitation to fundamentally prevent the recurrence of leaflet distribution," adding, "After that, measures to restore trust in inter-Korean relations should be devised, which is the best course of action at this time."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.