3 Reasons Why COVID-19 Is More Dangerous Than a Month Ago

①Increase in Confirmed Cases Among 'High-Risk' Elderly
②Infection Risks in Elementary, Middle, and High Schools
③Insufficient Social Distancing Measures in the 수도권 Region

On the 8th, staff and related personnel lined up to get tested for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) at a screening clinic set up at Wonmuk High School in Jungnang-gu, Seoul. Photo by Mun Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Cho Hyun-ui] The domestic novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation is more dangerous than it was a month ago when the country shifted to the "everyday distancing (everyday quarantine)" system. Recently, the number of new confirmed cases has fluctuated between the 30s and 70s, indicating ongoing uncertainty. Experts cite three reasons why the situation is more dangerous than a month ago: an increase in confirmed cases among the elderly, the reopening of elementary, middle, and high schools, and low participation in distancing measures in the Seoul metropolitan area.

According to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters and the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency’s Central Disease Control Headquarters as of midnight on the 8th, there were 38 new cases. This is a slight pause compared to the two consecutive days exceeding 50 cases from the 6th (51 cases) to the previous day. However, due to the ripple effects of cluster infections from small church gatherings in the metropolitan area, the daily new cases have fluctuated between the 70s, 50s, 30s, and 40s since the 28th of last month, so there is no room for complacency.

The government’s conditions for shifting from social distancing to everyday quarantine on the 6th of last month were "daily new confirmed cases below 50" and "unidentified infection routes within 5%." The proportion of confirmed cases with unknown infection routes has recently been 8.7% over the past two weeks, far exceeding the manageable level of under 5% set by health authorities. In contrast, before and after the implementation of everyday distancing a month ago, the proportion of "dark figure patients" fell below 5%.

Besides the increase in daily confirmed cases and the proportion of dark figure patients, there are three risk factors that make the current situation more concerning than a month ago when the everyday quarantine system was introduced. First, a mass infection occurred at "Richway," a multi-level marketing company selling elderly health products in Gwanak-gu, Seoul, leading to an expected increase in confirmed cases among the elderly. The elderly, along with pregnant women and chronic disease patients, are considered high-risk groups for COVID-19 due to their weakened immune systems. Richway targets the elderly as its main customers and has been operating by gathering elderly people in mostly enclosed spaces for recreational activities such as singing and promoting health products. Since the multi-level marketing method involves attendees bringing acquaintances, the risk of transmission among high-risk groups is significant.

Second, with all grades of elementary, middle, and high schools starting in-person classes from this day, the possibility of regional infections spreading to school infections has increased. The fourth and final phase of sequential school reopening, which began with high school seniors on the 20th of last month, was implemented today. Despite measures such as limiting the number of students attending school in regions with high infection concerns to no more than two-thirds of the total students, schools with confirmed cases are emerging one after another. Wonmuk High School in Jungnang-gu, Seoul, suspended classes after a high school senior tested positive the previous day. A national petition titled "Who is school reopening for?" garnered over 170,000 signatures today, ranking second among ongoing national petitions.

Lastly, participation in distancing measures in the Seoul metropolitan area remains low. Following a cluster infection at a Coupang logistics center, the government recommended suspending public facility operations, refraining from operating high-risk facilities, and limiting external activities in the metropolitan area from the 29th of last month to the 14th of this month. However, analysis shows no significant change in movement within the metropolitan area. Park Neung-hoo, the first head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (CDSCH), pointed out yesterday, "Despite strengthened quarantine management measures in the metropolitan area, analysis of mobile phone usage, card sales, and transportation usage showed that the movement volume during the last weekend, the first after the enhanced measures, was about 99% compared to the previous weekend, indicating almost no change."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.