US-China New Cold War Era... Our Choice

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporters Yang Nak-gyu, Lim Cheol-young, Kim Dong-pyo] As the conflict between the United States and China enters the worst-ever "New Cold War era," the South Korean government’s concerns are deepening.

Although caught in the "nutcracker" position between the U.S. and China, South Korea is being forced to choose between the two, making it a time when more skillful diplomatic balancing than ever before is required, experts point out. Since the U.S.-China conflict aimed at hegemony over the international order is bound to be prolonged, the South Korean government needs to respond diplomatically with a clearer and more consistent direction.

Professor Hwang Jae-ho of the Department of International Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies said, "If a choice between the U.S. and China must be made, it is better to delay it as much as possible," adding, "Prematurely choosing one side before the conflict becomes more concrete risks losing both sides, and actively responding to one side’s stance can also be very risky."

He also suggested that South Korea should play a more proactive role as a buffer zone between the U.S. and China and pioneer a third diplomatic space. Professor Jung Dae-jin of the Institute for Unification at Ajou University emphasized, "Until South Korea establishes itself as a central player in multilateral diplomacy and holds the casting vote in the international community, it should seek to act as a buffer zone between the U.S. and China on a case-by-case basis within their strategic interests."

The security situation is also difficult. The U.S. officially withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and declared the deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the Pacific region. As the Cold War system between the U.S. and China intensifies, if the U.S. proposes deploying intermediate-range missiles on the Korean Peninsula, it could trigger a "second Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)" issue. Conversely, rejecting the U.S. proposal could damage the trust in the South Korea-U.S. alliance and lead to repercussions.

Yoon Deok-min, Distinguished Professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said, "The South Korean government cannot avoid a difficult situation regardless of the decision it makes," but added, "If the South Korean military completely lifts the South Korea-U.S. missile guidelines that limit the range and weight of missiles it possesses and deploys independent missiles, it can escape the dilemma of intermediate-range missile deployment."

On the other hand, Kim Tae-woo, former president of the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "In the long term, South Korea must maintain the South Korea-U.S. alliance through multifaceted consultations," and "The U.S. should positively consider deploying intermediate-range missiles on the Korean Peninsula and nearby areas."

The intensification of the U.S.-China conflict inevitably affects inter-Korean relations. Therefore, there are evaluations that South Korea should secure an independent and autonomous space for inter-Korean relations through summits and other means.

Jo Han-beom, senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "If China is cornered due to the U.S.-China conflict, North Korea’s rear will be shaken, and if its only sponsor, China, disappears as a backer, North Korea will have no choice but to place more importance on inter-Korean relations." He emphasized, "A South-North summit should be held," and "It is necessary to build trust between the two Koreas and steadily push forward what can be done even under North Korean sanctions."

Professor Yang Moo-jin of the Graduate School of North Korean Studies also said, "Through behind-the-scenes contacts, the points of contact between the two Koreas should be increased, and a dialogue atmosphere should be created by lifting measures such as the May 24 sanctions." He further stressed, "Exceptions to U.S. and United Nations (UN) sanctions on North Korea should be secured, and preparations should be made to immediately resume related inter-Korean cooperation projects once the COVID-19 situation calms down."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.