President Moon, Will He Achieve the Unmatched 4th Year '50% Approval Rating'?

[Planning-Top] The President's 4th Year in Office and the '50% Rule'... The 50% Approval Rating as a Benchmark for Avoiding Lame Duck and Ensuring Stable Governance

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jung-min] As President Moon Jae-in begins his fourth year in office on the 10th, attention is focused on whether he can overcome the 'impregnable fortress' that no one in Korean politics has ever surpassed. Previous presidents, who maintained high approval ratings in the early stages of their terms, failed to break through the '50% approval rating wall' in their fourth year. A 50% approval rating is a benchmark that allows for stable governance free from concerns of a 'lame duck' period. This three-part series?'Upper, Middle, Lower'?explores the political significance and challenges surrounding the so-called 50% approval rating rule for presidents. -Editor’s note

(Upper) The Impregnable Fortress of the Fourth Year of Presidency: The 50% Approval Rating Wall

(Middle) Unprecedented Power Concentration and the Dilemma of Overpaced Governance

(Lower) The Rise of Future Power and Close Aide Corruption: The Fourth Year’s Hidden Obstacles

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Among past presidents, former President Kim Young-sam (YS), who recorded the highest approval ratings early in his term, also suffered from the fourth-year jinx. This is the so-called 'setting sun' dilemma. The fourth year of a presidency is a period when control over state affairs weakens. With numerous national tasks piling up and diminishing power, it is difficult to avoid the looming clouds of a 'lame duck' period.

According to Gallup Korea’s presidential job performance evaluation, YS recorded a 41% approval rating in the first quarter of his fourth year, which dropped to 28% by the fourth quarter. YS was not the only one to falter before the 50% approval rating wall in the fourth year. Every president since the introduction of direct presidential elections in 1987 has experienced this.

Looking at the fourth quarter of the fourth year, former Presidents Lee Myung-bak (MB) and Kim Dae-jung (DJ) recorded 32% and 31%, respectively, which were relatively better results. Former Presidents Roh Moo-hyun and Park Geun-hye remained at 12% approval ratings in the same period. Such approval ratings make normal governance difficult.

Professor Lee Jun-han of Incheon National University’s Department of Political Science and Diplomacy explained, "Looking at politics both in Korea and abroad, approval ratings tend to rise early in the term and then decline over time. However, there are exceptions. Brazilian President Lula and Russian President Putin maintained approval ratings of 70-80% even toward the end of their terms."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Professor Lee diagnosed that President Moon Jae-in’s approval rating ahead of his fourth year is also an exceptional case. According to a Gallup Korea public opinion survey conducted nationwide on 1,000 adults aged 18 and over from April 28 to 29, the positive job performance rating for President Moon was 64%, with a negative rating of 26%. The approval rating, which had fallen to the low 40% range in the third year, rose to around 60% ahead of the fourth year. For detailed information on the Gallup Korea survey, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

President Moon’s stable approval rating is linked to South Korea’s status as a model country in responding to the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19). On the 4th, Blue House spokesperson Kang Min-seok emphasized the significance of a call with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, stating, "This is the 100th call with a foreign head of state since the president’s inauguration," and "Regarding COVID-19 response, there have been calls with heads of state from 30 countries."

As favorable foreign media coverage of South Korea continues, President Moon’s approval rating is rising in tandem. COVID-19 is expected to remain a key issue in the international community for some time. The ongoing positive foreign media reports urging "Let’s learn from Korea" are also noteworthy. This suggests that the political environment is being created for President Moon’s approval rating to surpass 50% in the first quarter of his fourth year.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The fact that the Democratic Party of Korea won a landslide victory with 180 seats including proportional representation in the general election, making the power structure of the 21st National Assembly starting on the 30th overwhelmingly favorable to the ruling party, is also a point to note. If President Moon begins to address the backlog of national tasks one by one based on the ruling party’s stable majority, it could translate into momentum for rising approval ratings.

Political analyst Eom Kyung-young of the Spirit of the Age Research Institute said, "President Moon’s greatest strength is his attitude of doing his best and working hard. Communication with the public is the reason for his high approval ratings," and analyzed, "Usually, approval ratings drop in the second half of the fourth year, but President Moon is likely to maintain a more solid trend than expected."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.