[General Election Poll Verification - Mokpo] Among 6 April Polls, 3 Show Close Race Between Kim Won-i and Park Ji-won... Final Count Shows 11.4%P Difference

[Asia Economy Reporter Hwang Jin-young] Various opinion polls conducted to gauge regional public sentiment ahead of the general election have been fraught with controversy. The core of the debate was that opinion polls failed to accurately capture public sentiment and instead distorted public opinion. Asia Economy is publishing a series verifying how accurate the opinion polls were, focusing on constituencies where many polls were conducted.

Most constituencies in Jeonnam, classified as strongholds of the Democratic Party of Korea, revealed their outcomes early, with a predictable easy victory expected.

However, Mokpo, where 'political veteran' Park Ji-won of the Minsheng Party was challenging for a fifth term, was an exception.

Political newcomer Kim Won-i, a former Deputy Mayor for Political Affairs of Seoul, representing the Democratic Party, challenged the 'political veteran,' and Yoon So-ha, a proportional representative from the Justice Party, also joined the race.

In the Honam region, a rare three-way contest among three pro-government candidates emerged, making it a focal point of interest.

To understand the Mokpo race, six opinion polls were conducted by media outlets in April alone. (For detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

All six polls showed candidate Kim leading, with candidate Park trailing behind.

However, three of the polls indicated the gap between Kim and Park was within the margin of error, while the other three showed gaps of 18.7 percentage points, 12.4 percentage points, and 12 percentage points respectively.

Yoon's support in the six polls ranged from 11.6% to 17.1%.

Based on the polls alone, it was difficult to determine whether Kim was comfortably ahead of Park or if the race was close.

The vote count results were Kim Won-i 48.7%, Park Ji-won 37.3%, and Yoon So-ha 11.8%.

The vote difference between Kim and Park was 14,537 votes, with an 11.4 percentage point difference in vote share.

None of the six polls accurately predicted the vote shares of all three candidates or the top two candidates, Kim and Park, within the margin of error.

Kim and Park’s vote shares were generally higher than those indicated by the polls, while Yoon’s vote share was generally lower than her poll support.

This is interpreted as voters who initially supported Yoon switching their votes to Kim or Park to avoid wasting their votes.

The YTN-Realmeter poll, which increased the proportion of landline phone respondents to 40%, closely matched Kim and Yoon’s vote shares within 0.2 percentage points each, but differed from Park’s vote share by 7.1 percentage points.

The poll conducted on the 3rd by Gwangju-Yeosu-Mokpo MBC, Newsis Gwangju Jeonnam Headquarters, and Mudeung Ilbo, commissioned to Korea Gallup, was within the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points) for Park and Yoon’s vote shares but differed from Kim’s vote share by 6 percentage points, exceeding the margin of error.

Except for the YTN-Realmeter poll, the support rates for Kim in the other five polls were all lower than his actual vote share, exceeding the margin of error.

All six polls underestimated Park’s support compared to his actual vote share, with four of them exceeding the margin of error.

Meanwhile, Yoon’s poll support ranged from 11.6% to 17.1%, but her actual vote share was only 11.8%.

The gaps between support rates and vote shares were: Kim -9.5 to 0.2 percentage points, Park -7.2 to -2.7 percentage points, and Yoon -0.2 to 5.3 percentage points.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.