[General Election Poll Verification - Suseong Gap] 5 out of 6 polls conducted in April show Kim Bu-gyeom and Joo Ho-young in a 'close race'... Vote share difference is 20 percentage points

All 6 polls 'accurately predicted' Kim Bu-gyeom's approval within the margin of error, while Ju Ho-young's results all missed
Kim Bu-gyeom's actual vote share was similar to or lower than the polls
Ju Ho-young's vote share exceeded polls by 5.2 to 13.8 percentage points

[Asia Economy Reporter Jin-Young Hwang] During the April 15 general election period, Daegu Suseong District in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, a stronghold of the United Future Party, attracted nationwide attention.

The key point of interest was whether Kim Boo-kyum, the Democratic Party candidate running in Suseong Gap, and Hong Joon-pyo, an independent candidate running in Suseong E, would survive.

The United Future Party arranged a "hitman nomination" by nominating Joo Ho-young, a four-term incumbent who had served in Suseong E, to capture the "presidential hopeful" Kim Boo-kyum, resulting in a head-to-head match between two four-term incumbents.

Public opinion polls also focused on Suseong Gap.

Since the official campaign started on the 2nd, six public opinion polls conducted among Suseong Gap residents all showed that candidate Joo was ahead of candidate Kim.

However, five of these polls indicated that the gap between the two candidates was within the margin of error.

This meant it was a close race, and the results could only be known after the votes were counted.

The vote count results were Kim Boo-kyum with 60,462 votes (39.2%) and Joo Ho-young with 92,018 votes (59.8%).

Contrary to the close race suggested by the polls, the difference between the two candidates was 31,556 votes (20.6 percentage points).

The reason the actual vote difference was larger than the polls was that Kim’s vote share was similar to the polls, while Joo’s vote share exceeded the polls by 5.2 to 13.8 percentage points.

All six polls conducted in April accurately predicted Kim’s vote share within the margin of error, but Joo’s vote share was outside the margin of error in all cases.

The YTN-Realmeter poll conducted from the 6th to 8th (Kim Boo-kyum 38.8%), the Munhwa Ilbo-Embrain Public poll on the 7th (Kim Boo-kyum 38.3%), and the Seoul Shinmun-Research & Research poll from the 4th to 5th (Kim Boo-kyum 39.9%) were all within 1 percentage point of Kim’s actual vote share. (For detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

On the other hand, the support rates for candidate Joo in these three polls were 54.6% (YTN-Realmeter), 43.9% (Munhwa Ilbo-Embrain Public), and 47.1% (Seoul Shinmun-Research & Research), respectively.

While undecided voters tend to consolidate at the end of the election, usually resulting in higher actual vote shares than poll support rates for both Democratic and United Future Party candidates, Kim’s actual vote share was almost the same or even lower than his poll support rates.

This suggests that undecided voters may have shifted toward candidate Joo at the end of the election, or that there was a presence of "shy conservatives" who did not reveal their voting intentions in the polls.

Among the six polls, the one closest to Joo’s actual vote share was the YTN poll commissioned to Realmeter conducted on the 6th and 7th (Joo Ho-young 54.6%).

This poll had the highest proportion of landline phone respondents at 40% among the six polls and was the only one showing Joo’s support rate above 50%.

The difference between the poll support rate and Joo’s actual vote share was 5.2 percentage points, exceeding the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points).

The other five polls all showed Joo’s support rate in the mid-40% range.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.