Presidential Hopefuls' Value to Fluctuate with General Election Outcomes... Most Engaged in 'Ultra-Close' Battles

Jongno Lee Nak-yeon Leads... Hwang Kyo-ahn Chases
Oh Se-hoon Also Stakes Political Fate in Fierce Battle for Gwangjin-eul
Attention on Independent Candidate Hong Joon-pyo and Kim Boo-kyum's Election Outcomes in Challenging Districts

On the 6th, Lee Nak-yeon, co-chairman of the Democratic Party of Korea and candidate for Jongno District in the April 15 general election (right), and Hwang Kyo-ahn, leader of the United Future Party, met and shook hands at a debate hosted by the Jongno District Election Broadcasting Debate Committee held at the T-Broad Broadcasting Gangseo Production Center in Gangseo District, Seoul. Photo by the National Assembly Press Corps

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyemin] After the April 15 general election, a bigger stage called the presidential election will unfold in the political arena. This is why there is keen interest in which of the 'presidential hopefuls' will survive the general election held two years ahead of the presidential race. If they survive, they can instantly raise their value as the next frontrunner. Although evaluations may vary depending on the electoral district and opposing candidates, conversely, if they fail to even pass the threshold of the general election, their path to the presidency will inevitably become more difficult.

The number of presidential hopefuls from both ruling and opposition parties who have thrown their hats into the ring in this general election is narrowed down to nine. From the ruling party, candidates Lee Nak-yeon, Kim Boo-kyum, Kim Du-kwan, and Kim Young-choon are mentioned, while from the opposition, candidates Hwang Kyo-ahn, Oh Se-hoon, Hong Joon-pyo, Kim Byung-joon, and Kim Tae-ho are cited. As of the 13th, just two days before the election, the outcome remains uncertain. Most are engaged in a neck-and-neck race within the margin of error.

The most closely watched race is undoubtedly Seoul Jongno. It is called a mini presidential election because the top two presidential candidates face off here, and it also holds symbolic significance as the 'political number one district.' The candidate who secures this area can solidify their position as a presidential contender. So far, polls show candidate Lee Nak-yeon holding an advantage. However, for Lee, winning Jongno is important not only for that district but also for the overall election. If he can secure a support base within the party, which is considered relatively weak, through this general election, it will strengthen his presidential bid.

On the other hand, for candidate Hwang Kyo-ahn, winning Jongno is a matter of life and death. Knowing it is a tough district, if he manages to overturn the polls and win, he can eliminate the strongest rival and simultaneously establish himself as the unrivaled presidential candidate within the opposition. However, if he fails to overcome the hurdle and loses by a large margin, it will be difficult for him to gain momentum not only for the presidency but also in the party leadership contest that will intensify after the election. Candidate Hwang has made a last-minute appeal by stirring the sentiment of 'checking the ruling party's landslide victory.'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Among the ruling party, attention is also focused on whether candidates Kim Boo-kyum (Daegu Suseong-gap), Kim Young-choon (Busan Jin-gu-gap), and Kim Du-kwan (Gyeongnam Yangsan-eul) will be elected. Busan and Daegu are considered relatively tough districts compared to the metropolitan area and Honam, where the Democratic Party has strong support. Recent polls also show a neck-and-neck race within the margin of error, making the outcome unpredictable. If they manage to win these tough battles and return victorious, it will mean their individual capabilities are recognized beyond the party.

In the opposition, the fate of candidate Oh Se-hoon in the highly contested Seoul Gwangjin-eul district is on the line. Having served as mayor of Seoul and raised his profile, he has been classified as a presidential hopeful each time, but since his defeat in Jongno four years ago, he has not taken on any significant roles. If he revives his career by winning Gwangjin-eul, he is expected to establish himself as a contender for the next party leadership and presidential race. However, if he loses to the political newcomer Democratic Party candidate Go Min-jung, it could deal a severe blow to his standing as a politician, let alone as a presidential hopeful.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The survival of candidates Hong Joon-pyo (Daegu Suseong-eul) and Kim Tae-ho (Gyeongnam Sancheong-Hamyang-Geochang-Hapcheon), who are at the center of nomination conflicts, is also drawing attention. Running as independents, they are currently engaged in a close race with the United Future Party candidates. If candidate Hwang loses in Jongno and these candidates enter the National Assembly, the future leadership competition within the United Future Party is expected to change.

There is also interest in the future roles of presidential hopefuls who have declared they will not run in the general election. From the ruling party, former presidential chief of staff Lim Jong-seok, and from the opposition, lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, are effectively acting as campaign committee heads, actively supporting candidates.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.