Busan-bound is ruling party, Capital region is opposition... Focused firepower

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy reporters Park Cheol-eung and Kim Hye-min] With the 21st general election just 8 days away, the Democratic Party of Korea is concentrating its efforts on Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (PK). Since public opinion analyses show the party leading nationwide, a strong performance in PK could lead to a landslide victory. On the other hand, the United Future Party is focusing on recovering the deteriorated public sentiment in the Seoul metropolitan area. Both parties face numerous battlegrounds in the metropolitan area and PK, making a last-minute push crucial for both.

Lee Hae-chan, the Democratic Party leader who was hospitalized last week due to overwork, recovered and headed to Busan. At the election strategy meeting held on the 6th at the Democratic Party Busan branch, Lee announced, "We will promote the 'Season 2' of relocating public institutions to local areas after the general election." His controversial remark that "Busan is shabby" was a slip of the tongue made while emphasizing regional development.

At the meeting, Lee also mentioned, "I think securing the targeted 130 seats will be smooth." According to a public opinion poll conducted by Gallup Korea from the 31st of last month to the 2nd of this month, the PK region shows a close support rate with the Democratic Party at 37% and the United Future Party at 32%. (The telephone survey included 15% landline interviews, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points (95% confidence level) and a response rate of 14%. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

The Democratic Party currently holds 10 out of 40 seats in PK (6 in Busan, 1 in Ulsan, 3 in Gyeongnam). Based on the poll results alone, the Democratic Party seems capable of gaining additional seats. However, looking at individual constituencies, the situation is truly 'clock zero.' In the representative battleground Busan Busanjin-gap, Democratic candidate Kim Young-chun and United Future Party candidate Seo Byung-soo show results that vary by poll. Additionally, constituencies such as Nam-gu-eul (Democratic Park Jae-ho vs. United Future Lee Eon-ju), Haeundae-eul (Democratic Yoon Jun-ho vs. United Future Kim Mi-ae), and Saha-gap (Democratic Choi In-ho vs. United Future Kim Cheok-su) are also engaged in close contests within the margin of error.

Kim Du-kwan, the Democratic candidate for Yangsan-eul who has been assigned as the vanguard for the PK election, is also showing neck-and-neck support rates with United Future candidate Na Dong-yeon.

The United Future Party is in a relatively more urgent situation. It is reported that their internal analysis over the past weekend confirmed a decline in support beyond the margin of error, especially in the metropolitan area. The metropolitan area holds 121 seats, nearly half of all constituencies.

Lee Jin-bok, the United Future Party’s general election headquarters chief, told Asia Economy on the 7th, "Our goal was 130 seats, including 50 in the metropolitan area, but we understand that in some initially competitive districts, we have fallen behind by single digits. Other regions have not seen significant changes from early assessments, but the problem lies with public sentiment in the metropolitan area."

Seemingly aware of this, Kim Jong-in, the United Future Party’s general election committee chairman, undertook a grueling schedule on the 6th, visiting 14 constituencies in Seoul in one day. At a campaign rally supporting Mapo-gap, Kim said, "There are voices saying recent polls are somewhat unfavorable to the United Future Party," adding, "I never believe early polls directly determine election results." On the 7th, Kim also planned support visits to Gyeonggi’s Yeoju-Yangpyeong, Seongnam, and Seoul’s Seongbuk constituencies.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.