[Hotbed Public Opinion] 'PK Prospect' Kim Young-chun and Former Busan Mayor Seo Byung-soo Neck and Neck... Busanjin-gap

Kim Young-chun, the Democratic Party candidate (right), and Suh Byung-soo, the United Future Party candidate, are fist-bumping as they register their candidacies at the Busanjin District Election Commission in Busan on the 26th of last month.
Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Jin-young Hwang] In Busanjin-gap, where Kim Young-chun, a candidate from the Democratic Party of Korea and former Minister of Oceans and Fisheries, is competing against Seo Byung-soo, a candidate from the United Future Party and former mayor of Busan, recent two opinion polls have shown a close race with differing leaders.

In a poll conducted by Research & Research on March 31 and April 1, commissioned by Dong-A Ilbo, 500 adult men and women aged 18 and over living in the Busanjin-gap district were surveyed. The results showed Kim with 38.9% and Seo with 35.9% support.

The gap between the two candidates is 3 percentage points, indicating a tight race within the margin of error.

Independent candidate Jung Geun, who left the United Future Party, received 11.2%, and Min-saeng Party candidate Jung Hye-jung received 0.7%.

Among the active voters who stated they would "definitely vote," Kim had 40.6% support and Seo had 40.1%, showing a neck-and-neck contest.

Party support in the area was 36.7% for the Democratic Party and 33.3% for the United Future Party, similar to the difference in support between the two candidates.

The poll was conducted via landline and mobile phone interviews (20% landline + 80% mobile), with a response rate of 10.7%.

The sampling error is ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

On the other hand, a poll conducted by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) on March 25-26, commissioned by Busan Ilbo, showed Seo leading Kim beyond the margin of error.

Seo received 41.1%, Kim 32.9%, with a gap of 8.2 percentage points between the two candidates.

Independent candidate Jung received 14.9%, and 6.1% responded that they had "no preferred candidate."

Party support was 29.4% for the Democratic Party and 43.5% for the United Future Party.

The gap in party support was 14.1 percentage points, larger than the difference in support between Kim and Seo.

Compared to the Dong-A Ilbo poll, the Democratic Party's support was 7.3 percentage points lower, while the United Future Party's support was 10.2 percentage points higher.

By age group, Seo received 48.1% support from those aged 60 and over and 46.1% from those in their 50s. Kim received 27.7% and 30.1% respectively in these age groups.

In the 40s age group, Kim received 45.8%, higher than Seo's 38.3%.

Among those aged 18-29, Kim had 29.4% and Seo 28.0%, while in their 30s, Kim had 37.3% and Seo 37.4%, showing a close contest.

Busanjin-gap, like most districts in Busan, is a traditional conservative stronghold where Kim was the first Democratic Party-affiliated candidate to win in the 2016 general election.

Kim won in this difficult district and achieved a third term, and after the current government took office, he was appointed Minister of Oceans and Fisheries, emerging as a promising figure representing the Busan-Gyeongnam (PK) region.

The United Future Party strategically nominated Seo, former mayor of Busan, as Kim's rival.

Before serving as mayor, Seo was elected four consecutive terms in Haeundae-Gijang-gap.

The poll surveyed 511 adult men and women aged 18 and over residing in Busanjin-gap, using mobile phone virtual numbers (75.9%) and random digit dialing (RDD) for landlines (24.1%), with a response rate of 6.5%.

The sampling error is ±4.3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

For detailed information, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.