"If COVID-19 Spreads Widely, Global Airline Revenue to Drop by 133 Trillion Won"

International Air Transport Association Expands Revenue Decline Forecast in Just Half a Month
Secretary General: "Outlook Dramatically Worsened in Less Than Two Months of Spread... Aviation Industry Crisis"

On the 5th, when the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and Incheon International Airport Corporation announced the pilot introduction of a 'three-step quarantine network' in the passenger departure process from arrival at Incheon Airport to boarding the aircraft in response to the spread of COVID-19, Terminal 1 departure hall at Incheon International Airport was less crowded than usual.
Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Yu Je-hoon] If the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) spreads extensively, it is projected that the global airline industry's revenue will decrease by up to $113 billion (approximately 133 trillion KRW) this year.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced on the 5th (local time) that this figure was calculated as a result of an analysis of the financial impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the global air transport industry.

Previously, on the 20th of last month, IATA estimated that the global airline revenue loss this year due to COVID-19 would be $29.3 billion (approximately 35 trillion KRW). However, as COVID-19 spread to about 80 additional countries worldwide, the revenue loss forecast was raised.

IATA pointed out, "Since the COVID-19 outbreak, airline stock prices have fallen by nearly 25%, which is higher than the 21% drop at a similar point during the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak."

IATA first estimated that if COVID-19 spreads 'restrictively,' the global airline revenue loss would be $63 billion (approximately 74 trillion KRW). This result assumes passenger number decreases of 14% in Korea, 24% in Italy, 23% in China, 16% in Iran, and 12% in Japan. This is also about twice the previous estimate ($29.3 billion).

If COVID-19 spreads extensively, the revenue loss rate is estimated to be 19%, amounting to $113 billion (133 trillion KRW). IATA explained that this is equivalent to the losses experienced by the airline industry during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

Alexandre de Juniac, IATA Director General, stated, "In less than two months since the spread of COVID-19 began, the outlook for the airline industry has dramatically worsened," adding, "Whether the loss will be limited to $63 billion or expand to $113 billion is currently unknown, but it is certainly a crisis."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.