Sincheonji and Daegu Both Show Signs of Declining Positivity Rates... Is a Calm Coming?

[Asia Economy reporters Choi Dae-yeol, Kim Heung-soon, Jo Hyun-ui] The quarantine authorities have effectively contained the surge of additional confirmed COVID-19 cases that had rapidly increased over several days by focusing diagnostic testing on symptomatic individuals from the Shincheonji Jesus Church in Daegu. The 'positivity rate,' calculated based on the number of additional patients relative to those tested, is showing signs of decline. The positivity rate is significant as it serves as a leading indicator reflecting the trend of confirmed cases and helps predict future developments. The number of confirmed cases tends to fluctuate in a similar pattern a few days after changes in the positivity rate.

Since the 31st patient (61-year-old female), a member of the Shincheonji Daegu Church, was identified on the 18th of last month, the positivity rate, which once soared to 7% (February 23), has recently fluctuated and dropped to the 4% range over the past week. The positivity rate is also gradually decreasing in diagnostic tests conducted on approximately 10,000 members of the Shincheonji Daegu Church. This marks a new phase in assessing whether secondary and tertiary infections are spreading, primarily in the Daegu area.

4.5% Positivity per 10,000 Tests
Quarantine Authorities Assess "Secondary Transmission Risk Contained"

According to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters for COVID-19, as of midnight on the 5th, the total number of COVID-19 diagnostic tests conducted domestically reached 146,541. This is an increase of 9,834 from 136,707 as of midnight on the 4th. The number of confirmed cases increased by 438 in one day. The positivity rate calculated from the additional tests and confirmed cases stands at 4.5%. Since the 27th of last month, the authorities have expanded testing to around 10,000 people daily. This was to identify symptomatic individuals and close contacts among Shincheonji Daegu Church members as much as possible to promptly block community transmission.

As 500 to 700 patients tested positive daily among these individuals, the positivity rate, which was only 1.6% on the 25th of last month, surged to 6.2% four days later. Since then, the positivity rate has fluctuated without surpassing its peak: 5.3% on the 1st, 4.5% on the 2nd, 3.7% on the 3rd, 4.8% on the 4th, and 4.5% on the current day.

Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters for COVID-19, stated, "As diagnostic testing for (Shincheonji Daegu Church) members has been extensively conducted, the overall number of patients is decreasing." She added, "Although confirmed cases increased by 500 to 600 daily for a while, since those individuals were already under quarantine management and identified through testing, we believe the risk of secondary transmission has been maximally contained."

Shincheonji Jesus Church Daegu [Image source=Yonhap News]

Positivity Rate at 'Shincheonji Daegu' Also Declining
Daegu City to Expand Diagnostic Testing for General Citizens

The positivity rate among Shincheonji Daegu Church members, who led the surge in domestic patient numbers, is also decreasing. There are a total of 10,914 members. As of this date, 8,458 have completed testing, and results for 6,540 have been received. Among these, 3,394 tested positive, resulting in a positivity rate of 51.9%, down 16.2 percentage points from 68.1% on the 2nd.

According to the quarantine authorities and Daegu City, 70-80% of the daily new confirmed cases nationwide are from the Daegu area. Of these, over 70% are linked to the Shincheonji Daegu Church. If the positivity rate among this group declines, the number of additional confirmed cases nationwide will also significantly decrease. In fact, daily new confirmed cases dropped from 600 on the 3rd to the 400s. Kwon Young-jin, mayor of Daegu, said, "The daily positivity rate among Shincheonji Daegu Church members was 27.9% as of the 4th, which is significantly lower compared to the early outbreak phase in the region when it exceeded 80%."

Considering the declining positivity rate among Shincheonji members, Daegu City has decided to expand diagnostic testing to the general public. This is to block secondary and tertiary infections spreading to family members, relatives, and acquaintances of the members. As of midnight on this day, out of 27,509 diagnostic tests conducted by Daegu City, 19,051 (69.3%) were allocated to general citizens. The daily average number of diagnostic tests, which was about 2,100 from the 1st to the 3rd, was increased to over 3,000 starting on the 4th. Head Jung Eun-kyung emphasized, "Medical institutions in Daegu have also been heavily exposed to infection, and there are many cases where transmission occurred from Shincheonji members to medical staff or patients. We must effectively block these to slow the speed of community transmission."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.