[Comprehensive Report 2] North Korean Projectile Flies 240km... Preparing a 'New Path'?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] North Korea fired two unidentified projectiles into the East Sea from the Wonsan area in Gangwon Province. This is the first time North Korea has launched projectiles this year.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) stated on the 2nd, "North Korea fired two unidentified projectiles into the East Sea from near Wonsan this afternoon," adding, "These projectiles were detected by the military's ballistic missile early warning radar."

The JCS explained, "It is assessed that North Korea is continuing the joint strike training conducted on February 28," and "The flight distance of the projectiles launched this time was about 240 km, and the altitude was about 35 km." The South Korean and U.S. military authorities are analyzing additional specifications.

This is the first time in 95 days since North Korea last launched projectiles on November 28 of last year. On November 28 last year, at around 4:59 p.m., North Korea fired two 'super-large multiple rocket launchers' near Yeonpo in South Hamgyong Province. The projectiles reached a peak altitude of 97 km and flew 380 km before falling into the East Sea.

The military authorities analyze that the launch site being in the Wonsan area of Gangwon Province is related to the joint strike training conducted on the 28th of last month. North Korea has conducted joint strike trainings three times before?in January 2015, March 2016, and April 2017?but the scale of the training conducted on the Wonsan coast last month was the smallest. In the previous three strike trainings, up to about 300 self-propelled artillery and various multiple rocket launchers were mobilized for collective bombardment and firing, but this time about 90 were mobilized. The level of the joint strike training after three years has thus been scaled down. It is presumed that at the end of this joint strike training, which is part of the winter training, two short-range projectiles were launched according to the joint strike scenario.

It is analyzed that North Korea's attempt at its first missile provocation this year is to attract the attention of the United States. North Korea, which had announced a 'new path' at the end of last year, firing short-range projectiles for the first time this year is seen as an attempt to moderate the level externally for now.

Inter-Korean and North Korea-U.S. summit talks have been stalled since the Hanoi North Korea-U.S. summit on February 27-28 last year ended with 'no deal' (no deal, no outcome). Although dialogue has stopped, U.S. President Donald Trump's attention is focused on winning re-election. This means that both domestic policies and foreign strategies are being set based on whether they help with re-election success.

In this context, the North Korea policy is no different. The general outlook is that President Trump is unlikely to take action unless there is a situation where he can achieve results that would help his re-election. President Trump has so far provided the core momentum for progress in North Korea-U.S. relations through a 'top-down' approach.

In particular, by postponing the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises scheduled for the 9th of this month, the justification for North Korea to provoke with missiles has effectively disappeared. The Joint Chiefs of Staff and the United States Forces Korea officially announced on the 27th that the joint exercises would be postponed due to the impact of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19). The postponement of the joint exercises scheduled from the 9th of next month by the military authorities of both countries was recorded as the first case where an infectious disease affected the 66-year history of South Korea-U.S. joint exercises.

North Korea's internal situation is also unfavorable. Although North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un has claimed that COVID-19 has not entered the country, it is estimated that about 7,000 people in Pyongan Province and Gangwon Province are effectively under 'home quarantine' surveillance. The Workers' Party organ, Rodong Sinmun, reported on the 1st in an article titled "Intensifying propaganda and quarantine efforts to prevent virus epidemics" that there are about 3,900 'medical surveillance subjects' in total, including approximately 2,420 in South Pyongan Province and 1,500 in Gangwon Province.

Because of this, there is speculation that North Korea's recent projectile launches may be test launches for simple performance improvements.

The British 'Jane's International Defence Review (JIDR)' stated in last month's issue, "North Korea conducted a liquid-fuel engine test on December 7 last year," adding, "On the 12th, South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo also mentioned that this engine is a liquid engine with greater output than before, and that it is for ICBMs." Additionally, Lee Willett and Nick Hansen evaluated in this article that "Chairman Kim Jong-un's declaration at the end of 2019 that North Korea would take a 'new way or path' if the U.S. did not bring a new calculation on denuclearization by the end of the year was intended to show this to the North Korean people."

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