Wavering Turkey-Russia Cooperation: Is the Safety Net in the Syrian Civil War Disappearing?

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The previously harmonious relationship between Turkey and Russia is now shaking in the Idlib region of Syria. Idlib is the last stronghold of the Syrian rebels, and the Syrian government forces' offensive continues unabated. As the Syrian government forces' offensive persists, even the 'Astana Process' among Russia, Turkey, and Iran is at risk of collapsing.

On the 4th (local time), Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, after completing his visit to Ukraine, met with reporters and stated, "At this stage, we have no reason to be in conflict with Russia," adding, "We can discuss all issues." Erdogan's remarks to dispel rumors of conflict with Russia ironically indicate that the bilateral relationship is in a precarious situation.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In the nine-year-long Syrian civil war, Turkey has supported the rebels, while Russia has backed the government forces. Despite supporting opposing sides, both countries have played a role in managing the conflict steadily. Based on this, the two countries, along with Iran, established a consultative body in Astana, Kazakhstan, to discuss solutions to the Syrian civil war. As a result of these efforts, the two countries agreed in 2018 to establish a de-escalation zone in the Idlib area of Syria.

Building on this relationship, Turkey maintained cooperation with Russia, even at the risk of conflict with its ally, the United States, by pursuing the introduction of Russia's S-400 air defense missile system.

However, recent developments have put the bilateral relationship to the test. Since the end of last year, the Syrian government forces have intensified their military offensive against the Idlib area, the last territory held by the rebels. Despite the 2018 ceasefire agreement, the Syrian government forces continued their military offensive under the pretext of eradicating terrorists. As a result, some of the Turkish observation posts established between the government forces and the rebels are now completely surrounded by Syrian government forces.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Turkey has responded sensitively to these changes. There is concern that if Idlib falls, a large number of Syrian refugees who sided with the rebels could flood into Turkey. The international community fears that this could result in millions of refugees. Currently, 3.6 million refugees have taken shelter in Turkey.

In response to the recent military offensive, Turkey has deployed additional troops to Idlib, Syria, consisting of over 200 combat vehicles, including tanks and armored vehicles. Despite notifying the Syrian government forces in advance of the locations of Turkish troops, Turkish forces were shelled, resulting in the deaths of eight Turkish soldiers. Turkey is dissatisfied that Russia has not properly restrained the Syrian government forces' military offensive.

Regarding this, President Erdogan recently said, "(Regarding the Syrian civil war situation) there is no discussion process," and added, "The Astana talks have fallen into silence," suggesting that the peace consultative body may collapse.

Russia, for its part, has repeatedly stated its intention to restrain the Syrian government forces. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with domestic media, "We will strive to maintain the 2018 Astana ceasefire agreement."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.