[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] This Year's ROK-US Joint Military Exercise Confirmed for Early March

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] South Korea and the United States have finalized the timing of the '20-1' joint exercise, which replaces the Key Resolve (KR) exercise, for early March. Although the timing has been set, both countries maintain that the schedule and scale can be adjusted depending on North Korea's provocative actions.

According to government officials on the 30th, the joint exercise, which will be conducted for 10 days starting in early March this year, will begin with the Crisis Management Staff Training (CMST), a preliminary phase of the main exercise, followed by the Combined Command Post Training (CCPT). The CCPT refers to a 'war game' conducted through computer simulations without the actual deployment of troops and equipment.

The names of the exercises have also been changed. Since the second half of last year, the Crisis Management Exercise (CMX) has been renamed CMST, and the Combined Post Exercise (CPX) has been changed to CCPT. The renaming is reportedly based on the directive of Robert Abrams, the commander of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command. The term "alliance" was also removed. This was intended to avoid using provocative names, mindful of North Korea's strong criticism linking the ROK-US joint exercises with North Korea-US denuclearization working-level talks.

The '20-1' joint exercise this year has significantly reduced the number of participating troops and duration, similar to last year. Typically, joint exercises proceed according to operational plans in the order of crisis creation (CMST) → limited provocation → start of war → reinforcement → counterattack operations → conclusion. Since CMST plays a role in setting the situation before the full-scale exercise phase, it is not included in the official joint exercise schedule. Therefore, broadly, the exercise has been conducted over two weeks divided into Part 1 (defense) and Part 2 (counterattack). However, this year, the counterattack operation scenario has been removed, reducing the exercise period to 10 days.

Alliance term removed and all command post training English names changed
Counterattack exercises excluded, simulation to be conducted over 10 days
Basic operational capability verification for wartime operational control transfer during exercise period
Joint exercise content and duration may change if North Korea provokes

Although the exercise period has been shortened, South Korea and the United States plan to focus on thoroughly assessing North Korea's nuclear and missile response capabilities to establish a solid foundation for the transfer of wartime operational control. There are also expectations that the operational control transfer, following the successful completion of the Initial Operational Capability (IOC) verification last year, will take place in 2022, the final year of the Moon Jae-in administration.

The issue lies in whether North Korea will provoke. If a tough message toward North Korea is included in U.S. President Donald Trump's upcoming New Year's State of the Union address in early next month, there is analysis that the scale of the ROK-US joint exercise could return to its original size. This is based on the assumption that President Trump would emphasize criticism and military responses toward North Korea due to provocations.

In his first State of the Union address after taking office in January 2018, President Trump emphasized that North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons could harm the U.S. mainland. At that time, he said, "No regime has oppressed its own citizens more completely or brutally than the cruel dictatorship of North Korea," and "North Korea's reckless pursuit of nuclear weapons could soon threaten our homeland."

The U.S. side is inevitably sensitive to North Korea's movements. On the 29th (local time), the U.S. North Korea specialist media 38 North reported that footprints and vehicle tracks were visible on the snow covering the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province, North Korea, based on recently taken commercial satellite images. Human and vehicle traces were detected at tunnels and support facilities, and the snow on the road leading to the command post had been cleared.

38 North pointed out that footprints were also visible on the road leading to the eastern tunnel, which had been virtually abandoned since the first nuclear test in 2006, calling it "very unusual to find such signs of activity nearby." However, it explained that although the specific reason is unclear, this could also be part of routine security patrols.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is actively deploying advanced strategic weapons in Japan. It is known that four F-22 Raptors from the U.S. Air Force base in Alaska, which would be deployed to the Korean Peninsula in an emergency, were recently dispatched to Yokota Air Base in Japan. U.S. special operations aircraft have been flying repeatedly near the Korean Peninsula, and the latest unmanned reconnaissance aircraft (MQ-4C) have been deployed to the 7th Fleet in Guam. Some speculate that these U.S. military movements may be linked to unusual activities detected in North Korea, but no concrete evidence has been confirmed yet.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.