Off-Season, Lunar New Year, and Subscription Suspension... The Severely Contracted Housing Market

Housing Industry Research Institute January Nationwide Pre-Sale Market Sentiment Index Forecast at 78.6
Down 10p from Previous Month... Seoul Drops 23.2p, Expanding Negative Perception

Housing Sales Sentiment Index (HSSI) Trends

[Asia Economy Reporter Onyu Lim] Expectations for nationwide pre-sale projects in January have sharply declined. This is due to overlapping negative factors such as the off-season for pre-sales, the Lunar New Year holiday, and the transfer of the housing subscription system. In particular, the outlook for the Seoul metropolitan area, including Seoul and Incheon, has significantly dropped, increasing volatility in the pre-sale market.

According to the Korea Housing Industry Research Institute on the 14th, the Housing Sales Sentiment Index (HSSI) forecast for January nationwide is 78.6, down 10.0 points from the previous month. The HSSI is an index that comprehensively assesses the pre-sale conditions of apartment complexes that suppliers are about to pre-sell or are currently pre-selling, based on monthly surveys of housing companies (members of the Korea Housing Association and the Korea Housing Construction Association). An HSSI above 100 indicates a positive sales outlook, while below 100 indicates the opposite.

Regional Housing Sales Market Index Outlook

Looking at the HSSI by region, Seoul recorded 78.9, a drop of 23.2 points from the previous month. The Korea Housing Industry Research Institute explained, "Seoul’s outlook, which previously exceeded the baseline of 100, fell to the 70s, greatly increasing negative perceptions that the pre-sale market will not be favorable." Incheon fell 13.4 points to 78.0, and Gyeonggi dropped 6.8 points to 82.7.

Some metropolitan cities such as Ulsan (100.0), Daejeon (92.5), and Busan (91.1) showed a downward trend but maintained levels between 90 and 100. Jeju showed the lowest outlook at 47.8, down 11.0 points.

By company size, the January HSSI forecast showed a general decline with large companies at 89.9 and mid-sized companies at 65.3. Especially in Seoul, the outlook dropped more than 20 points for both large companies (93.1) and mid-sized companies (64.2).

The Korea Housing Industry Research Institute analyzed that the decline in the January HSSI forecast is due to overlapping negative factors such as the winter off-season for pre-sales, the Lunar New Year holiday, and the temporary suspension of subscriptions caused by the transfer of the housing subscription system. The subscription system, previously operated by the Korea Financial Telecommunications & Clearings Institute, was transferred to the Korea Real Estate Agency. To facilitate this, new resident recruitment announcements were closed from the 1st, and new subscription operations will be suspended from the 17th to the 31st.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.