"China Faces Increased Pressure to Support North Korea, but Behavioral Change Remains Uncertain"

Oxford University Researcher, Contribution to Hong Kong SCMP

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Park Sun-mi] As North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un announced new strategic weapons, attention is focused on whether China, which has supported North Korea so far, can continue to play a strong 'backer' role for North Korea this year as well.

Edward Howell, a researcher at the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) of Oxford University and an expert on Korean Peninsula issues, wrote in an article for the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on the 5th (local time) that China, which has supported North Korea in the ongoing North Korea-US conflict, is now facing considerable burdens due to North Korea's announcement of new strategic weapons. However, he added that because of this burden, it is unlikely that China will take bold actions toward North Korea immediately.

He reminded that the relationship between the two countries has become closer on the occasion of the 70th anniversary of North Korea-China diplomatic relations last year, and explained that China has repeatedly advocated for the easing of sanctions against North Korea. He also mentioned that although the deadline was set for the 22nd of last month for North Korean workers earning money in China to be sent back, it seems unlikely that this will happen immediately. Rather, since North Korea and China are dissatisfied with the US's North Korea policy, it would not be surprising if Kim Jong-un and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet again this year.

Researcher Howell argued, "The US demands strengthening sanctions against North Korea, but China and Russia show no signs of complying," and "China is more likely to seek alternatives to support North Korea." He explained, "Examples include humanitarian aid and food support that can help without violating existing sanctions against North Korea." He added, "At the same time, China's tourism and business exchanges with North Korea can continue to boost the North Korean economy," and "North Korea has long been adept at evading sanctions, and this atmosphere does not seem likely to change this year."

He said, "Unless North Korea or the US takes any action first, it seems unlikely that China will take bold measures against North Korea," and "There have been many talks that China holds the key to all changes related to North Korea, but now the ball is in North Korea's court. The first move is up to North Korea and the US."

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