[Economic Outlook] Will the Fiscal Deficit Widen?... Fiscal Trends from January to November Last Year to Be Announced on the 8th

On January 2nd, the first working day of the new year, citizens are walking to work at Gwanghwamun Intersection in Seoul. On this day, fine dust was thick, especially in the metropolitan area. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Sim Nayoung] Next week, the key issue will be how much national tax revenue was collected from January to November last year. Attention is expected to focus on whether the deficit in the managed fiscal balance, which recorded a record high up to October last year, has further expanded.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance will release the January issue of the Monthly Fiscal Trend report on the 8th. It contains the scale of national tax revenue and fiscal balance details from January to November last year. National tax revenue from January to October last year was 260.4 trillion won, down 3 trillion won compared to the same period the previous year. This is the first time since 2013 (a decrease of 3.9 trillion won) that national tax revenue from January to October has decreased year-on-year.

The managed fiscal balance recorded a deficit of 45.5 trillion won from January to October last year, marking the largest deficit since statistics began to be published in 2011. The managed fiscal balance is an indicator showing the government's net fiscal situation, calculated by excluding the four major social security funds from the integrated fiscal balance (government total revenue minus total expenditure). During the same period, the integrated fiscal balance showed a deficit of 11.4 trillion won. On a cumulative basis, this was the largest deficit since the global financial crisis in 2009 (13.3 trillion won deficit).

The Bank of Korea will announce the foreign exchange reserves as of the end of December last year on the 6th. At the end of November, Korea's foreign exchange reserves stood at 407.46 billion dollars, an increase of 1.14 billion dollars compared to the previous month. This marked the highest level for two consecutive months following October.

On the 7th, the Bank of Korea will release the international balance of payments statistics for November last year. The current account surplus in October last year was 7.83 billion dollars, the largest in 12 months.

On the 9th, the Bank of Korea will publish the preliminary statistics on the financial flow for the third quarter of last year. The financial flow table records the flow of funds by economic agents and financial assets over a certain period. It is a statistic that shows the flow of money in the financial market. In the second quarter, the increase in funds managed by households and non-profit organizations through deposits, insurance, stocks, and bonds was 23.5 trillion won, an increase of 12.8 trillion won compared to 10.7 trillion won in the same period last year.

On the 10th, the Bank of Korea will release the financial market trend statistics for December 2019. Housing mortgage loans in the banking sector increased by 4.9 trillion won in November, the largest increase in 11 months since December 2018 (4.9 trillion won), and whether this trend will continue is a key issue.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.