Lee Junseok Emerges as the 'Key Man' in Conservative Unification Talks

Maintains Stance Against Pan-Conservative Unification

Presidential Race Dynamics Hinged on Whether He Runs to the End or Joins the Big Tent

Potential for Major Shifts in the Presidential Election Landscape

Lee Junseok, the presidential candidate of the Reform New Party, is greeting commuters on their way home at Gwanghwamun Square in Seoul on the 17th of last month. Photo by Yonhap News

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Lee Junseok, the presidential candidate of the Reform New Party, has emerged as the 'key man' in negotiations for unifying conservative presidential candidates. As the issue of unification between Kim Moonsoo, the People Power Party candidate, and Han Deoksu, the independent preliminary candidate and former Prime Minister, becomes a focal point, the so-called 'pan-conservative big tent' could take on a different shape depending on Lee's decision. Analysts suggest that the dynamics of the presidential race could change significantly depending on whether Lee completes his run or decides to join the big tent coalition at the last minute.

According to political circles on May 7, Lee continues to maintain his stance against pan-conservative unification. In response to calls from some in the conservative camp to discuss forming a big tent with Kim Moonsoo and Han Deoksu, he reiterated, "I have no plans to meet with them." He expressed discomfort with his name being included on the unification list, describing it as a 'secondary offense.'

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Lee's suggestion that he will run through to the end of the presidential race is seen as a strategic move to strengthen his political standing with an eye on elections beyond 2025. In fact, Lee has been announcing new campaign pledges daily, charting his own independent course. On this day as well, he pledged to provide a monthly pension of 5 million won to domestic scientists who have received world-renowned awards such as the Nobel Prize and the Fields Medal. Hong Hyunsik, director of Hangil Research, analyzed, "Time is on Lee Junseok's side. He is building his base among future generations," adding, "With conservatives currently disappointing the public, there is neither justification nor practical benefit for him to join the big tent."

However, there is a possibility that Lee could change his stance if the conservative camp consolidates around a single candidate. The so-called 'Harvard connection,' as Lee and Han are university alumni, could gain influence. Political commentator Park Sangkyu assessed, "I think Lee is laying the groundwork in advance for unification," suggesting that Lee could increase his political value and eventually participate in candidate unification through a last-minute poll or similar process.

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In recent public opinion polls, Lee has been recording a support rate of 6 to 9 percent in three-way matchups that include Lee Jaemyung, the Democratic Party candidate, and the People Power Party candidate. Considering that Sim Sangjung of the Justice Party received 2.37 percent of the vote in the previous presidential election, which had a direct and indirect impact on the outcome, political circles believe that Lee could significantly shake up the 6·3 presidential race structure. Ultimately, whether Lee completes his run or participates as part of a unified conservative candidacy is expected to remain a major variable until the very end of the presidential race.