Unprecedented Heatwave Last Year Led to Surge in Global Electricity Demand for Cooling

Increased Power Demand Met by Coal and Gas-Fired Power Plants

This Repeats a Vicious Cycle That Intensifies Global Warming

Last year, an unprecedented heatwave caused a sharp rise in global electricity demand. The main reason was increased use of air conditioning to cope with the extreme heat. The additional power demand was met primarily by carbon-emitting energy sources such as coal and gas. Experts point out that this has created a vicious cycle in which heatwaves caused by global warming lead to more fossil fuel power generation, further worsening the climate crisis.

According to a recent report by the UK-based climate and energy think tank Ember, electricity demand in China, the United States, and India rose significantly between April and September last year. These three countries are considered the world's largest electricity markets, accounting for half of global power demand. During this period, China's electricity demand increased by 7% year-on-year, marking the steepest rise. In India, it grew by 6.1%, while in the US, it rose by 3.3%.

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A significant portion of the increased electricity demand was due to air conditioning. In China, 31% of the additional power demand was attributed to cooling needs during the heatwave. In August last year, when China experienced extreme high temperatures, electricity demand from various industries and households increased by 4%. However, demand for electricity for cooling alone rose by nearly 5%. In September, the increase in industrial and household electricity demand was 4.4%, but cooling demand added another 4.6%, resulting in a total electricity demand growth rate of 9%.

In the US, 37% of the increase in electricity demand was due to high temperatures. The surge in cooling demand became particularly noticeable from May last year, when the heatwave began. In June, when the heat was at its peak, electricity demand for cooling jumped by 10.8% compared to the same month the previous year. In contrast, electricity demand in other sectors fell by 1.3%. While industrial and household electricity consumption (excluding cooling) decreased compared to a year earlier, the heavy use of air conditioning led to a 9.5% overall surge in total electricity demand.

In India, about 19% of the increase in electricity demand last year was due to cooling. Between April and June, electricity demand rose by 10.8% year-on-year, with 30% of that increase coming from air conditioners. The demand for electricity from cooling devices is expected to continue rising. According to data company Statista, India's air conditioner market is projected to grow by 17.5% annually from this year through 2030. As India's middle class expands and urbanization progresses, the number of households with air conditioners will increase, inevitably driving up electricity demand.

The increased electricity demand was met by coal and gas-fired power plants. In other words, more energy sources that contribute to heatwaves were used because of the heat.

In September last year, China's electricity demand increased by 70 TWh compared to the same month the previous year due to air conditioning, with cooling-related demand rising by 36 TWh. However, electricity supply from clean energy sources increased by only 24 TWh. The shortfall was met by expanding coal power generation by 44 TWh, which is more than a 10% increase compared to September of the previous year. China's coal power generation last year was 115 TWh, with 38.2% of the total annual coal power generation concentrated in September, when the heatwave occurred.

The United States is no different. In June of last year, the US electricity demand increased by 35 TWh compared to the same month the previous year. The cause was a 39 TWh increase in cooling demand. Although power generation using clean energy sources covered 23 TWh, the rest was supplied by gas (7 TWh) and coal (4 TWh). Gas power generation in June increased by 4.6% compared to the previous year, and coal increased by 6.4%. If the US had not used coal power generation in June alone, it could have reduced coal power generation in 2024 by 4% compared to the previous year.

India was the country with the highest proportion of coal power generation. In May of last year, when high-temperature phenomena occurred, coal supplied 70% of the increased electricity demand in India. The remaining 30% was also generated by gas, not clean energy.

The impact of heat on electricity demand is becoming more pronounced. This is because global temperatures are rising rapidly. Last year, the average global temperature was 1.55 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, making it the hottest year on record. Both China and the US also experienced their hottest years since meteorological records began. In August last year, southeastern China, with its high population density, endured a prolonged heatwave. In the US, severe heatwaves with temperatures nearing 44 degrees Celsius struck areas such as New Jersey and Washington, D.C. In India, the country suffered from an intense heatwave between April and June, with the number of hot days in the northeast nearly doubling the usual average.

The report advises that to break the vicious cycle of increased cooling and fossil fuel power generation, the use of clean energy must be expanded and electricity efficiency improved. This could involve encouraging rooftop solar power to reduce reliance on fossil-fuel power plants and providing incentives for air conditioners that use less electricity.

Costanza Rangelova, an electricity analyst at Ember, pointed out, "Relying on fossil fuels to meet the growing demand for cooling is a failing strategy," adding, "It worsens climate change and leads to more frequent and intense heatwaves."