It has been four days since the government announced that North Korea has deployed special forces to the Russian battlefield. However, Western countries are withholding 'official confirmation.' This is interpreted as a cautious approach, as each country’s response measures may differ. It appears that we will also face pressure to provide lethal weapons support to Ukraine.

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John Kirby, National Security Council (NSC) Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the White House, stated on the 21st (local time) that "if it is true that North Korean troops are participating, it is certainly a dangerous and concerning situation." As with the concerns expressed two days earlier by U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the premise of "if true" still remains.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) confirmed North Korean troop participation on the 18th. The NIS detected that about 1,500 North Korean special forces boarded Russian naval transport ships near Chongjin and Hamhung and moved to Vladivostok between the 8th and 13th of this month. Using artificial intelligence (AI) facial recognition technology, they even identified a specific soldier as a missile technician, and detailed information was provided that they were disguising themselves with fake identification cards.

It is highly unusual for the NIS to disclose such 'information' first. Before this announcement, President Yoon Suk-yeol held an emergency security meeting attended by key officials from the National Security Office, Ministry of National Defense, and the NIS. Immediately after the meeting, the presidential office announced, "We will mobilize all available means to respond," and soon after, the NIS released evidence of 'North Korean troop deployment.' This could be a sophisticated psychological operation aimed at pressuring North Korea and Russia.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff announced that North Korea blew up a section of the inter-Korean roads on the Gyeongui Line and Donghae Line on the 15th. The photo shows the scene of the road explosion on the Gyeongui Line captured by our military CCTV.

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However, despite our government's confidence, the West, including the United States, is withholding 'confirmation.' The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has expressed concern but maintains that it 'cannot confirm' the deployment of North Korean troops itself. The United Nations (UN) is also refraining from comment. Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, said regarding the reports of North Korean troop deployment, "There is no official confirmation yet," and only gave a principled response that any violation of sanctions is a matter for the Security Council to determine.

The reason the United States and other Western countries are cautious about 'confirmation' is because it would inevitably require changes to their response measures. Although it is unlikely that the deployed North Korean soldiers would change the course of the war, for the United States or NATO, the level of intervention in the conflict could be fundamentally different. The United States must also consider the upcoming presidential election, now less than two weeks away.

On the 18th (local time), the Ukrainian Military Strategic Communication and Information Security Center (SPRAVDI) released a video showing soldiers presumed to be North Korean lining up to receive Russian supplies. [Image source=Yonhap News]

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Park Wongon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, said, "From the perspective of the United States or NATO, providing weapons and sending combat troops as 'direct participation' are fundamentally different matters," adding, "The United States likely has its own intelligence, but since third-party intervention in the war is a very serious issue, they are taking a position of verifying it thoroughly."

When the United States or NATO reaches a decision, it is expected that our government will also face increased pressure to provide lethal weapons support to Ukraine. The military authorities are keeping all 'overall possibilities' open and are reviewing necessary measures. Support for 155mm artillery shells and the dispatch of tactical troops, which have been restrained until now, are being discussed.

A device presumed to be a loudspeaker for propaganda toward the South is installed next to a North Korean guard post as seen from Paju.

A government official stated, "If Russia transfers core military technology in response to the deployment of North Korean troops, it could be considered crossing a 'red line,'" adding, "A review of the level of Russia-North Korea military cooperation is necessary."