"Ukraine Achieves Sustained Territorial Gains for the First Time Since October 2023"

The Economist Reports:
"Russian Casualties Outpace Recruitment"

Reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing its first sustained net loss of occupied territory in Ukraine since October 2023.

On May 17 (local time), the British weekly magazine The Economist, analyzing data from the U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reported that Ukraine has recaptured approximately 189 square kilometers of territory over the past 30 days. A week earlier, on May 10, the area of Russian-occupied territory lost over the preceding 30 days stood at 113 square kilometers.

A soldier belonging to the 12th Azov Special Purpose Brigade of the Ukrainian army is operating a reconnaissance drone. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

The Economist stated, "Russia is suffering continuous, albeit limited, territorial losses in its occupation of Ukraine," adding, "This is the first time this has occurred since October 2023." The report further analyzed that "this may be a temporary pause by Russian forces before a major summer offensive, or it could signal a turning point in the war." Since the beginning of this year, Russia has managed to occupy only about 220 square kilometers, equivalent to 0.04% of Ukraine's total territory.

Russian military casualties are also surging. The Economist estimated that, as of May 12, the total number of Russian soldiers killed in action is between 280,000 and 518,000. Including those wounded, the total number of Russian casualties reaches between 1.1 million and 1.5 million, which accounts for approximately 3% of Russia's prewar male population of combat age.

Each month, Russia is sustaining around 35,000 casualties, a figure that exceeds the rate at which new recruits are joining. Until last year, there were 2 to 3 wounded Russian soldiers for every fatality. However, in March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that the number of Russian deaths per wounded soldier was now nearly two to one.

Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor at King's College London, remarked, "The key question in the coming months is whether Russia can halt Ukraine's advances using drones," and added, "We must also watch whether Russia is holding back its forces in preparation for a summer offensive." He concluded, "The reality is that Russia is struggling on the frontlines, and things are not going well."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.