Strait of Hormuz Blockade Worsens, but Maritime Supply Chain Early Warning System Lags Behind

[Maritime Supply Chain Emergency]
KOBC Begins Building Maritime Supply Chain Monitoring and Early Warning System
Pilot Operation of the "Maritime Supply Chain Platform" Planned for November This Year

As concerns over disruptions in energy supply are becoming a reality due to the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the government has belatedly begun building an Early Warning System (EWS) for maritime supply chains. This comes a year after the government announced, in June last year during the Israel-Iran military conflict, that it would pursue this as a key response strategy. However, in the midst of an urgent situation where tankers bound for Korea are stranded and even Korean-flagged vessels are being attacked, there is criticism that the opportunity for a "timely warning"—the so-called golden time—has already been missed.

As of May 11, seven Korean oil tankers are stranded near the Strait of Hormuz and unable to move. The total volume of crude oil loaded on these ships amounts to 14 million barrels, which is equivalent to five times Korea's daily crude oil consumption (approximately 2.8 million barrels). According to last year's data, out of the global daily maritime crude oil trade volume of 45.8 million barrels, 15.7 million barrels (34.2%) and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Of this, oil bound for Korea accounts for 13.9% and LNG for 7.7%. The attacks on Korean-flagged vessels mean that the maritime supply chain crisis has escalated from a mere "logistics disruption" to a risk affecting the entire national economy.

In contrast, the establishment of a response system has been slow. According to the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and the shipping industry, Korea Ocean Business Corporation (KOBC) has only recently commissioned a project to build the EWS and begun work in earnest. Under the Enforcement Decree of the Supply Chain Stabilization Act, the Ministry plans to delegate the operation and management of the early warning system for economic security items to KOBC, which is the designated specialized agency.

Previously, KOBC had announced immediately after the military conflict in June last year that it would "strengthen real-time monitoring systems," but only launched a dedicated organization (the Supply Chain Response Team) and began system development in earnest this January, six months later. The EWS being developed by KOBC focuses on real-time monitoring of global maritime "chokepoints"—critical points in logistics networks that could be paralyzed—such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and the Strait of Malacca. The system will comprehensively analyze a variety of data, including geopolitical risks, climate, port congestion, freight rates, and shipping volumes, and issue four levels of crisis alerts (Interest, Caution, Warning, Severe). In addition, KOBC plans to develop short-term (1 month), medium-term (3–6 months), and long-term (over 1 year) forecasting models, and independently calculate a "Maritime Supply Chain Volatility Index" that quantifies global maritime logistics conditions, similar to the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The project period alone is set at one year, but KOBC, taking the urgency into consideration, plans to launch at least a pilot version of the monitoring system by around November this year. A KOBC official explained, "Currently, we rely on foreign media and information providers for basic data such as shipping volumes and waiting times, but we are working to systematize this information. The goal is to detect crises early, so that companies have time to find alternative routes and respond accordingly."

However, there are ongoing criticisms inside and outside the industry that the government's response to supply chain crises still amounts to "locking the stable door after the horse has bolted." While land-based supply chain management for items like semiconductors and batteries has been highly advanced, the maritime supply chain system responsible for transporting core national resources (such as oil, gas, and grain) has essentially been neglected.

An official in the shipping industry commented, "This Hormuz Strait crisis has clearly demonstrated that geopolitical risks can collapse the entire global logistics network in a short period of time. With oil prices surging, import prices rising, and export companies facing delivery delays simultaneously, maritime supply chain risks must be managed preemptively as a matter of national security."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.