Trump and Putin's Consecutive Visits to China Unlikely to Provide Breakthrough in Inter-Korean Relations

Significant Impact on North Korea Policy
But North Korea-U.S. Dialogue Remains Unlikely

With U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to China and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s consecutive official trip to China confirmed for May 14-15, the outcomes of these summits are expected to have an impact on South Korea’s North Korea policy. However, experts emphasize that the upcoming visits to China by the U.S. and Russian leaders in May are unlikely to provide an immediate breakthrough in inter-Korean relations. Observers point out that the effectiveness of South Korea’s North Korea policy will depend on the stabilization of U.S.-China relations and whether there is any preceding change in North Korea-U.S. relations.

Park Wongon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, analyzed that the results of the U.S.-China summit will significantly affect South Korea’s North Korea policy. Professor Park said, “If the relationship between the U.S. and China stabilizes, that would have a positive meaning for us. However, if the situation remains unstable, China may try even harder to embrace North Korea and strengthen its efforts to draw North Korea closer.” Regarding the war in Iran, he pointed out, “There is a possibility that China will try to import more crude oil from Russia. If this happens, Russia will have increased cash flow and greater economic leeway, which could lead to increased support for North Korea through enhanced cooperation.” Nevertheless, Professor Park predicted that the likelihood of North Korea-U.S. dialogue materializing remains low due to the numerous unresolved issues in the United States and North Korea’s hardline policies.

Hong Min, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, also analyzed that the United States is deeply embroiled in the Iran crisis and therefore does not have the capacity to push for a North Korea-U.S. summit. Hong stated, “The United States is facing many dilemmas due to the Iran issue. In this situation, it is difficult for the U.S. to have enough capacity to pursue not only the U.S.-China summit but also a North Korea-U.S. summit.” He added, “There are also many outstanding issues between the U.S. and China, and it is not a situation where the North Korea issue can simply be added to the agenda.” Professor Park also predicted, “North Korea has made it very clear that it is pursuing the hostile ‘two-state theory’ regarding South Korea,” and therefore, “the possibility of so-called ‘Korea passing’ cannot be ruled out.”

Kim Yonghyun, Professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, stated that it is still too early for South Korea to pursue an inter-Korean summit based on the U.S.-China and Russia-China summits. Professor Kim analyzed, “Given the current flow of inter-Korean relations, it is difficult to find any immediate possibility for an inter-Korean summit.” However, he projected that “if there is a trend of improvement in North Korea-U.S. relations, it would have a positive effect on inter-Korean relations as well.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.