This Time, "Buy-Side Trading Curb" Ignites KOSPI’s Rebound

Trump Says "War with Iran Will End Soon"

Sharp Reversal in Soaring Oil Prices

KOSPI Correction Highlights Undervaluation Appeal

Abundant Liquidity and Growing Earnings Expectations

On March 10, 2026, dealer traders are seen working at the dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul, as the KOSPI index sharply rebounded in early trading and a buy-side car was activated following U.S. President Donald Trump's statement on the imminent end of the war, stabilizing oil prices. On the same day, the won-dollar exchange rate opened at 1,470.8 won, down 24.7 won from the previous trading day. Photo by Jinhyung Kang

The domestic stock market rebounded as expectations grew that the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran could be resolved early. Experts analyzed that, with the recent sharp decline making the Korean stock market more attractive in terms of valuation, abundant liquidity, and strong corporate earnings expectations—especially in the semiconductor sector—a sustained rebound could occur as long as international oil prices stabilize.

The Stock Market Surges on Trump’s Remark: "The War with Iran Will End Soon"

On March 10, the KOSPI index opened at 5,523.21, up 5.17% from the previous trading day, and as of 9:51 a.m., it was up 6.35% at 5,585.28. Due to the sharp rise in the index, a buy-sidecar was triggered at around 9:06 a.m., temporarily suspending program buy orders for five minutes. The KOSPI buy-sidecar is activated when the KOSPI200 futures price rises by 5% or more from its base price and remains at that level for at least one minute. On the same day, the KOSDAQ also started at 1,147.99, up 4.15%, and rose as high as 1,157.20 at one point.

Most of the large-cap stocks saw gains. As of 9:45 a.m., Samsung Electronics was trading at 189,900 won, up 9.45% from the previous session, while SK hynix was up 11.24% at 930,000 won. Other major companies such as Hyundai Motor (up 5.52%), LG Energy Solution (up 2.92%), Samsung Biologics (up 2.22%), and KB Financial Group (up 4.49%) also showed strong performance.

On March 9 (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump stated, "The war with Iran will end fairly soon," which boosted the New York stock market and caused international oil prices to plummet, affecting the Korean stock market as well. Overnight at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47,740.80, up 0.5% from the previous session. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended at 22,695.95, up 1.38%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged by 3.93%. In the case of the Nasdaq, the intraday fluctuation between the low and high reached about 3 percentage points. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, which had surged to around 119 dollars during the session, plunged into the 80-dollar range after Trump’s remarks and as the possibility of strategic oil reserve releases by the Group of Seven (G7) was raised.

Park Sanghyun, Senior Specialist at iM Securities, commented, "President Trump’s statement that the war is nearing its end signals a visible exit strategy for the Iran situation," adding, "The rebound in Asian financial markets, including Korea—which were relatively more affected by the Iran conflict—has been particularly strong."

On the 9th, as international oil prices surpassed $100, gas prices at gas stations nationwide rose. At the Mannam Square Gas Station in Seocho-gu, Seoul, cars lined up to refuel before prices went up further. March 9, 2026. Photo by Jin-hyung Kang

Experts believe that the stability of international oil prices is the most important factor for a sustained rebound in the Korean stock market. Since Korea’s industrial structure is highly dependent on oil, rising oil prices lead to a decline in economic growth and a surge in prices, which in turn dampens the economy. Byun Junho, Researcher at IBK Securities, explained, "Korea’s economy is far more dependent on crude oil compared to other major countries, so when international oil prices rise, the country is relatively more exposed to inflationary pressure," adding, "Oil price stability is desperately needed to calm the market."

Han Jiyeong, Researcher at Kiwoom Securities, stated, "The top negative influence on the stock market recently has been the direction of oil prices," explaining, "A surge in oil prices leads to a spike in inflation, which stokes stagflation concerns and can cause a negative chain reaction such as confusion in central bank policy responses."

International Oil Prices Reverse Sharply—A Trend Rebound for the Korean Stock Market Is Possible

There is also anticipation that, if oil prices stabilize, the Korean stock market could quickly rebound given the current conditions. The KOSPI has dropped more than 15% since the outbreak of war, boosting its undervaluation appeal, liquidity remains abundant, and expectations for corporate earnings improvement persist.

According to FnGuide and IBK Securities, as of the close on March 6, the KOSPI’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) was 8.08, a 20% decline from the year’s high of 9.95. The forward PER of the KOSPI is also the lowest among major global markets.

With the stock market’s sharp decline, the government decided to inject 100 trillion won in market stabilization funds, and client deposits surpassed an all-time high of 130 trillion won, both of which are positive developments. Starting next month, companies will begin announcing their first-quarter earnings, and expectations for improved results—especially among Korean semiconductor firms—could further fuel the market rebound.

Given concerns about inflation and a rise in government bond yields in the United States, analysts say it is unlikely that President Trump will prolong the war with Iran. Hwang Sanhae, Researcher at LS Securities, forecast, "The longer the war drags on, the higher oil prices will rise, increasing inflationary pressure in the United States," and added, "A rise in bond yields could also trigger President Trump’s so-called ‘TACO’ (Trump Always Cuts Out)."

Kim Seonggeun, Researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, analyzed, "The main issue in this year’s U.S. midterm elections in November is the cost of living. With already high dissatisfaction from American voters due to inflation in food and electricity prices, a further rise in gasoline prices is the biggest concern for the Trump administration," adding, "The rise in fuel prices alone provides President Trump with enough incentive to end the war with Iran swiftly."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.