Trump Considers Easing Sanctions on Russian Oil... Market Awaits Strait of Hormuz Reopening

Temporary Decline in International Oil Prices
After Approaching $120, Prices Return to the $80 Range
Strait of Hormuz Passage Remains Halted Despite Optimism

On March 9 (local time), international oil prices temporarily returned to the $80 range following U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks about an "early end to the war." After surpassing the $100 mark and nearly reaching $120 the previous day, oil prices plummeted, which was positively received by the U.S. stock market. Optimism appears to be rising in the market that "Iran is losing the war." However, it is pointed out that actually confirming the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz—a key international oil shipping route—remains a prerequisite for genuine market improvement.

According to Investing.com, as of 8:20 a.m. KST on March 10, Brent crude oil futures for May, the international benchmark, were trading at $90.33 per barrel, up 1.49% from the previous trading day. At the same time, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were down 7.06% at $88.11. On the previous trading day, WTI had surged past $100 per barrel, nearly hitting a four-year high of $120.

Overnight, the New York stock market opened lower amid concerns over high oil prices and expectations surrounding G7 finance ministers' discussions on releasing strategic oil reserves, but rebounded just before the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 47,740.80, up 0.50% from the previous day. The S&P 500 rose by 0.83%, while the Nasdaq closed up 1.38%.

President Trump, in a phone interview with CBS News on this day, stated, "The war is progressing much faster than expected," and added, "It is virtually almost complete." He particularly emphasized that it was "very complete, pretty much." During a press conference at his golf resort in Florida, he also described the war with Iran as a "fling," reaffirming that it would be a "short-term fling." NPR reported that this was President Trump's first press conference since the war began.

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical international oil shipping route, President Trump said that ships are currently passing through but also noted that he is considering ways to take control of the strait. However, it appears that, at present, not a single ship is actually passing through. According to a foreign news report, a Greek-operated oil tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Saudi oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz en route to India was almost the sole example in recent times.

President Trump announced that he would lift some oil-related sanctions to increase oil supply. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on March 6 that India would be permitted to import Russian oil and indicated that sanctions on other Russian oil imports could also be lifted.

Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group told The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), "The war could end very quickly, and we could see oil prices plummet," adding, "If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil shipments resume, the biggest concern will disappear." He also added, "The market has started to believe that Iran no longer has the capacity to continue the war."

The New York Times (NYT) pointed out that the options available to the U.S. to lower oil prices are limited. G7 finance ministers discussed the release of strategic petroleum reserves with the International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director present, but countries have decided to postpone joint releases for the time being. President Trump has previously criticized the Biden administration for releasing reserves after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The report also noted that measures such as reducing U.S. crude oil exports, temporarily easing sanctions on Russian oil, or relaxing environmental regulations to allow refineries to produce cheaper summer gasoline blends are unlikely to be very effective in practice. Similarly, the $20 billion government guarantee program for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, announced by the Trump administration, is also considered to have limited effect.

Meanwhile, some observers are cautiously raising the possibility of a stagflation scenario, where prolonged high oil prices are accompanied by worsening employment. Given the weak U.S. employment data for February, some foreign media reported expectations that upcoming inflation indicators will also show an increase.

Kaspar Hense of RBC BlueBay Asset Management told the media, "The risk of a 1970s-style scenario is growing," adding, "If the war drags on and oil prices rise much further, the safe-haven status of government bonds could be threatened. If that happens, all asset classes would be affected."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.