"Be Careful" Warnings Issued... Khamenei's Closest Ally Larijani Emerges as Key Successor [US-Iran War]

Key Aide Frequently Acted as Khamenei's Representative
Extensive Experience in Military and Parliament Seen as Strength
Trust from Hardline Conservatives Remains Uncertain

With the United States announcing the death of Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, attention is now focused on the composition of the next leadership. Although President Masoud Pezeshkian is the official second-in-command, the position of Supreme Leader—which presides over the executive, legislative, and judicial branches—is not automatically inherited.

Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution stipulates that, in the event of the Supreme Leader's incapacitation, an emergency committee composed of three people—the President, the Chief Justice, and a senior cleric from the Guardian Council—will temporarily assume authority. However, due to the recent military operation, some high-ranking officials may have already been killed, making the future composition of Iran's interim supreme leadership uncertain.

Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran. Photo by AFP Yonhap News

According to CNN on February 28 (local time), the targets of Israeli and US airstrikes included not only Supreme Leader Khamenei, but also President Pezeshkian, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Abdolrahim Mousavi, Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, and Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Defense Committee.

During Khamenei's lifetime, Ali Larijani was considered one of the most likely successors. In recent years, he has acted as Khamenei's representative in major negotiations with Russia, China, and the Gulf monarchies.

Born in 1958, Larijani is a former philosophy professor at the University of Tehran. He majored in mathematics and computer science, earned his doctorate with research on German philosopher Immanuel Kant, served as Speaker of Parliament from 2008 to 2020, held ministerial positions in four different ministries, and has experience as a commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He is regarded as having a deep understanding of the system, given his experience in the legislative, executive, and military branches.

Larijani was once classified by the West as a 'pragmatic conservative,' but is reported to have supported a hardline response during recent anti-government protests. However, because he swiftly ratified the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), some assess that he has not earned the full trust of the hardline conservative camp. In fact, he was once barred from running for president by conservatives.

Among figures discussed within the hardline conservative camp is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current Speaker of Parliament. Born in 1961, he is a former member of the Revolutionary Guard with strong military backing, and is known to be close to Khamenei’s second son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Amid the chaos following the Supreme Leader’s death, whether the IRGC maintains unity or fractures due to internal factional strife is expected to determine Iran’s future course.

If the Revolutionary Guard and the military maintain a united front, then even if the current Iranian leadership figures are killed, the existing power structure can largely be preserved through reorganization within the senior clerical group or military-led integration. If internal rifts emerge, other political pathways could open up; however, for now, there are reportedly no signs of such developments.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.