100 Economists Say "Korean Economy to Grow at 1% for Now...Urgent Need for Legislation to Prevent Technology Outflow"

Survey of Economics Professors by Korea Employers Federation
92% Say "AI Will Help Solve Economic Problems"

Economic experts have pointed out the urgent need for legislative measures to prevent the overseas outflow of core technologies such as semiconductors. They also expressed concerns that the Korean economy is likely to remain in a prolonged period of low growth at around 1%.

According to the results of the "Expert Survey on Economic Conditions and Major Issues" conducted by the Korea Employers Federation on January 25, targeting 100 economics professors, 54% of respondents predicted that "the Korean economy will continue to experience low growth at around 1% for the time being."

Korea Employers Federation 'Expert Survey on Economic Conditions and Major Issues'. KEF

Only 36% responded that the economy would "recover at a moderate pace and achieve an average growth rate of around 2% starting next year." Meanwhile, 6% said that "even achieving 1% growth in the future would be difficult." In contrast, only 1% expected that the economy would "recover rapidly and achieve an average growth rate of around 3% starting next year."

The average economic growth rate forecast for this year was 1.8%, which is lower than the government's projection of 2.0%. Only 5% of respondents expected growth to exceed 2.0%.

Additionally, while many scholars expressed concerns that U.S. tariff policies would have a significant negative impact on the Korean economy, there were also some who anticipated positive effects.

The proportion of respondents who believed that the Korea-U.S. tariff negotiations would have significant negative impacts (such as reduced exports and a contraction in domestic investment) was 58%, much higher than those who thought the negative impact would be low (23%). As for positive effects, such as market expansion in the U.S. and strengthened Korea-U.S. alliance, 35% saw the positive impact as high, while 38% saw it as low, showing similar levels.

In light of the recent increase in the overseas outflow of key technologies in major industries, which threatens the competitiveness of Korean companies, the majority of scholars responded that effective legislative measures-such as significantly strengthening penalties for the overseas outflow of core technologies-are urgently needed. The urgency was rated as "high (6 points or above)" by 87% of respondents, and "very high (8 points or above)" by 72%. In contrast, only 6% rated the urgency as "low (4 points or below)."

Moreover, there was strong support for the need to make working hours more flexible. 80% of respondents rated the necessity as "high (6 points or above)," and 59% rated it as "very high (8 points or above)." Only 10% rated the necessity as "low (4 points or below)."

There was also significant support for reforming the wage system to focus on job roles and performance. 80% of respondents rated the necessity as "high (6 points or above)," while only 4% rated it as "low (4 points or below)."

This year's forecast for the won-dollar exchange rate ranged from a low of 1,403 won to a high of 1,516 won. The main causes of the recent high exchange rate were identified as the "interest rate gap between Korea and the U.S." (53%) and the "increased demand for foreign currency due to expanded overseas investment by companies and individuals" (51%).

Additionally, 37% cited the "weakening competitiveness of the Korean economy," and 25% pointed to "concerns about the Korean economy among domestic and foreign economic agents (psychological factors)."

Regarding productivity improvement driven by the spread of artificial intelligence (AI), 92% of respondents believed it would help address issues such as a shrinking workforce and declining productivity in the Korean economy. Only 6% responded that it would "hardly be helpful."

Ha Sangwoo, Head of the Economic Research Division at the Korea Employers Federation, stated, "Given the global trade uncertainties and high exchange rates, it is difficult to be optimistic about the current situation. Policy support must be expanded to avoid falling behind in global competition, and it is urgent to establish strong measures to prevent the overseas outflow of advanced strategic industry technologies."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.